LAS VEGAS -- Leon Edwards is 11-0 with a no-contest in his last 12 fights. He's gone from being just another guy on the UFC's welterweight roster to one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
He has two wins over ex-welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, including a dramatic last-second head kick KO to win the title. He has beaten Nate Diaz, Vicente Luque and Donald Cerrone, among others, on his way to the top.
On Saturday in the main event of UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena, Edwards will defend his title for the second time when he faces former interim champion Colby Covington. Edwards is a slight -155 favorite, with Covington at +130 on the buyback. The over-under is 4.5 rounds, with over a -190 favorite. Under is +145.
Edwards seems to be underrated here. He's more of a low-key guy, while Covington's persona change in 2017 has made him one of the most high-profile fighters in the sport. As a sign of how much he's gotten over, former President Trump told ESPN that he'll attend Saturday's bout in support of Covington.
Covington, though, is infinitely more than a guy who built himself via his ability to use a microphone. He's one of the elite wrestlers in MMA and he's got the cardio to push hard for 25 minutes. Usman also is a wrestler and Edwards handled him well enough, though Usman was on his way to a decision victory in their first bout until the dramatic last-second KO.
Edwards has two wins over Usman, and was in complete command of the second, while Covington has lost to Usman twice. But MMA math, as they call it, always doesn't work.
To me, this is a coin toss fight. Edwards' striking is dangerous, particularly his kicks, and he'll have to keep the fight upright. Covington's striking isn't anywhere near Edwards' level, but it has improved through sheer hard work and it's made so much better by the threat of the takedown. Edwards has shown vulnerability in the past. He dominated Diaz for 4+ rounds, but Diaz, not known as a hard puncher, nearly finished him late in their 2021 bout.
Edwards deserves to be the favorite, but there are enough pathways for Covington to win this, so my first play is Covington by decision at +225. Covington is +1400 to win by submission at DraftKings and is +700 to win by KO. Both of those outcomes are extraordinarily unlikely, though it's not out of the question that Covington could rear naked choke Edwards if he hurts Edwards with a punch he doesn't see.
Covington, though, hasn't won a fight by submission in more than seven years, since he finished Jonathan Meunier with a rear naked choke on June 18, 2016, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
But I believe Covington will push the pace hard, give Edwards different looks and use his wrestling to grind out a victory. I'll lay $100 and take Covington at +225 to win by decision.
Given that, I also like the fight to go the distance. Edwards has only two finishes in his last 10 fights, one of which ended in a no-contest when he inadvertently poked Belal Muhammad in the eye. So Edwards hasn't been much of a finishing threat, and Covington has only been finished twice in 21 career bouts.
I'll put two units on the over 4.5 rounds at -190, thus risking $380 to win $200.
I'll take Ferguson in an upset
The Tony Ferguson who steps into the ring on Saturday to fight Paddy Pimblett is not the same Tony Ferguson who endeared himself to MMA fans for so long. Ferguson was one of the best fighters in the world up until the night he fought Justin Gaethje .
Ferguson had won 12 in a row prior to fighting Gaethje for the interim lightweight title at UFC 249 on May 9, 2020, in Jacksonville, Florida. He'd also been victorious in 18 of his previous 19.
None of that mattered against Gaethje, however. Ferguson absorbed a brutal beating in the fight and was stopped at 3:39 of the fifth. He's never been the same.
Since then, he's also lost to Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler, Nate Diaz and Bobby Green. He was stopped by Chandler, Diaz and Green in his three most recent outings.
He's also only two months away from his 40th birthday. Each fighter can take only so many shots, and it seems that Ferguson's lifetime of entertaining scraps has caught up to him.
Most of those fights, though, he's made mistakes that have led to the finish. We know after his training with former Navy SEAL David Goggins that he's going to be in elite condition and able to go hard. And Pimblett is a finisher, with 15 finishes among his 20 wins. On top of that, for those who would question Pimblett's opposition, he's finished three of his four UFC fights, all of which have been wins.
Ferguson has a height and reach advantage over Pimblett. They have similar striking accuracy results -- Ferguson is 46 percent and Pimblett 45 -- but Ferguson is better at defending strikes than Pimblett.
Pimblett is a deserved favorite, at at -305 it seems a bit high. Ferguson is +245 and it seems it's worth a shot getting that kind of return. So I'll lay one unit on Ferguson to win at +245 and will risk $100 for a $245 victory with a win.
Other plays:
• One unit on Cody Garbrandt at -200 to win over Brian Kelleher. Kelleher is +165.
• A half unit on the Irene Aldana-Karol Rosa fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -315.
-30-