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When Regis Prograis was progressing as a young professional, he seemed to be a combination of a pair of Hall of Famers, Juan Manuel Marquez and Arturo Gatti. Marquez was one of the smartest fighters in the sport, and he was a precision puncher. Gatti was an absolute warrior, one of the most exciting fighters ever who could take it as well as give it. He put on some of the most memorable fights of the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
Prograis reeled off wins in his first 24 bouts, and that close majority decision loss in 2019 to Josh Taylor in a super lightweight unification bout remains his only defeat.
He's 29-1 with 24 knockouts heading into Saturday's defense of his WBC super lightweight title against former undisputed lightweight champion Devin Haney at the Chase Center in San Francisco. It's unquestionably his biggest fight since Taylor, but the predictions of greatness for Prograis no longer resound throughout the boxing community.
He's good, no doubt, and a worthy world champion. But he's never taken that next step to stardom as his talent suggests he should have been able to do.
Haney, the challenger, is a healthy -400 favorite at Draftkings to defeat Prograis and claim the championship. That's an implied win probability of 80 percent, a significant figure going against a two-time world champion with power and only one defeat.
Prograis is a +300 underdog.
Prograis seemed poised for superstardom in his four fights prior to facing Taylor. On March 9, 2018, he stopped Julius Indongo in the second round to win the interim WBC super lightweight belt. It took him eight rounds on July 14, 2018, to stop Juan Jose Velasco. Prograis routed Terry Flanagan on Oct. 27, 2018, and won by unanimous decision. He then won by TKO in the sixth over Kiryl Relikh to win the WBA super lightweight belt on April 27, 2019.
That led Prograis to his bout with Taylor. He fought brilliantly in that bout in a losing effort, though he didn't have the extra oomph down the stretch that might have gotten what would have been a sensational road victory.
He hasn't seemed to have reached that level yet. From the Indongo fight to the Taylor bout, he fought five times in 20 months. He was sharp, active and improving. He hasn't reached that same level since and he's a significant underdog against Haney.
Haney is a good boxer who will likely use his hand speed and his footwork to keep Prograis off-balance. Haney has a sharp straight right he can use that will work well against a southpaw. It's hard to lay $400 to win $100 against a fighter like Prograis, who does have that pop in his hands. He's a far better puncher than Haney, who has gone the distance in his last seven fights and hasn't had a finish since Sept. 13, 2019, when he overwhelmed Zaur Abdullaev and made Abdullaev quit on the stool after four.
So I'm going to lay two units on Haney to win by decision, which is -225. So I'll risk $450 for the possibility of winning $200. Given I think there's very little chance Haney would stop Prograis, I'll be willing to lay that kind of money to fetch a $200 return.
I like the fight to go over 10.5 rounds, but it is -650. Under 10.5 is +400. You'll go broke quickly if you consistently lay -650, so I'll just say I believe the fight goes over but won't play it myself.