There's not much we know about what will happen between now and July 20, when Mike Tyson is scheduled to fight Jake Paul streaming on Netflix at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
What we do know is this, even if we don't know the exact figures: Tyson is going to receive a very large check, one with lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of zeroes. Be damn certain about that.
We know he's too old to be boxing no matter if the opponent is 27, 37, 47, 57 or even 87. Boxing is a young man's game, and not only can old men get hurt doing it, they can also suffer serious, and even fatal, injuries.
Tyson last fought for real in 2005, and he was a shell of the fighter he'd been at his peak in the late 80s and early-to-mid 90s, when his speed and power made him the most feared man in the world.
But if the 2005 version of Tyson was a shell of the man who knocked out Michael Spinks in 90 seconds in 1988 to unify the heavyweight titles, the 2024 version of the man is going to be a shell of the 2005 version. And that isn't good.
Tyson is an adult, and he more than just about anyone understands the risks.
It'd be heart-breaking to see one of the most popular fighters who ever lived stretched out in the middle of the ring while a one-time YouTuber who has yet to fight an active boxer of any note celebrates above his prone body.
That's no offense to Paul, who has repeatedly shown himself to be a brilliant promoter and have a genius mind for making money. But Paul has earned many millions by selling on the promise of what might happen. It's the same shtick pro wrestling promoters and carnival hucksters have sold for years: Put down your money and you won't believe what you might see.
It's hard to determine if Paul can really box, though he continues to call out superstars like undisputed middleweight champ Canelo Alvarez while actually signing to fight no-hopers like Andre August and Ryan Bourland.
No one who cares about boxing is insisting Paul fight Alvarez now. He's 9-1 with 6 KOs and lost to Tommy Fury, whose boxing skills are the very definition of mediocre.
But there are prospects who have nine, 10 or 11 fights who can, you know, fight, and Paul is avoiding them.
Some expressed shock upon hearing the news that Paul would be getting into the ring against Tyson because the memories of the old Iron Mike remain so vivid. Tyson will beat most if not all 50-year-olds, but let's be honest: He's not beating a big, strong athletic guy in his 20s who has been regularly training.
He's just not. It's fantasy to think that would happen.
Having said that, it was fantasy to think that Francis Ngannou, the ex-UFC heavyweight champion, could make his pro boxing debut at 37 and come within a blink of an eye of defeating WBC/lineal heavyweight champion Tyson Fury. Yet, Ngannou knocked him down and lost a split decision that outraged many who believe he'd done enough.
If it's a real fight, shame on the boxing officials in Texas for allowing it. And if it's a work, shame on Netflix for trying to pass this off on potential subscribers as a real sporting event.
Buyer beware, as they say.
Tyson sold over 1.6 million pay-per-views in 2020 for his exhibition bout against Roy Jones Jr. If Tyson had fought 20 years later, he'd be by far the biggest pay-per-view attraction of all-time. The universe of wired homes was vastly smaller when Tyson was in his prime than it is now or was when Floyd Mayweather was en route to earning nearly a billion dollars from boxing.
He lost much of it, and is working his way back. He remains a beloved figure among so many boxing fans, who no doubt will root their hearts out for him.
The risk is there for every fighter whenever they step into the ring, no matter which version of combat sports it is.
I've sat ringside at seven boxing matches in my career in which one of the fighters died. It's something you never forget.
The last thing we need in boxing is yet another tragedy. But yet, this fight is going forward.
All the best to Tyson and I hope he makes the largest payday of his career times 10.
I just don't feel good about this.
Not good at all.