One of the lines from the song, "Anything You Can Do" from the Broadway play, "Annie Get Your Gun," goes "Anything you can do, I can do better."
And it would be appropriate if those words were on Gervonta Davis' lips on Saturday as he makes the ring walk for his WBA lightweight title defense against Frank Martin at the MGM Grand Garden in the arena's 100th boxing card.
The main event features a battle of unbeaten boxers. A southpaw, Davis is 29-0 with 27 knockouts and some of the best one-punch power in the sport. Martin is 18-0 with 12 KOs, but he hasn't faced anyone remotely as close as good as Davis. He was supposed to fight Shakur Stevenson last year, but he declined and the bout was scrapped.
The odds at BetMGM reflect Martin's lack of experience at the highest level. Davis is a -750 favorite, a monstrous number for a bout between a pair of unbeaten fighters that is headlining a pay-per-view show. You have to lay -190 to get Davis by KO, which is another absurdly high number in a fight of this magnitude.
Martin is a solid fighter with few discernible weaknesses. And he can win, but it's going to take a lot. He'll need Davis to be off of peak form, to start. If Davis brings his best game, it's over. Book it. There is next-to-no-chance Martin wins if we see Davis' A game.
Now, Davis is not the fastest starter and he often keeps the guns in the holster early. Like a lot of elite champions, he uses the first couple of rounds to gather information about his opponent. This is an opportunity for Martin to pile up some rounds, so he has to come out of the dressing room ready to go and get his jab in Davis' face.
Martin needs to take advantage of whatever Davis gives him, and Davis' work rate is low early, Martin has to capitalize.
He also has to stand his ground and avoid going into full-out retreat. Davis tends to push forward and fights as if he's heading downhill. It not only wears out his opponent's legs, but it creates a psychological effect that also is draining. Martin should stand his ground and not allow Davis to bully him into the ropes or the corner.
Davis is two inches shorter than Martin, though the reach difference is only a half-inch in favor of Martin, which is negligible. Davis doesn't jab a lot, but he's good at parrying the jab and then firing powerful counters. He's good to the body and he has a terrific uppercut.
If Martin can stand his ground, he needs to be able to keep a good pace without opening himself up. Every time he throws is an opportunity for Davis to counter him. He's going to get hit in the fight, and a lot of his dream of scoring an upset will rest on his ability to take it.
But if he does get hit, he can't afford to let it be by a two- or three-punch combination. Limit it to one shot and clinch and hold, if necessary. If the crowd is booing, it's good for him.
At the end of the day, though, Davis is simply a bit better in all areas than Martin, who seems to be a good, solid though not great fighter.
That's why Davis by decision at +250 looks appealing He might get the knockout, but it hurts to lay -750 with the hope of winning just $100. Take Davis by decision and hope Martin isn't overcome by the moment.