Riyadh Season USA betting: As terrific as Israil Madrimov is, it's almost impossible to bet against Terence Crawford

Israil Madrimov is no young upstart. He's an elite, seasoned professional boxer who isn't that far away from being considered one of the pound-for-pound best in the world. He holds the WBA super welterweight championship and has scored seven knockouts among his 10 wins.

He's 10-0-1, though his record is really 10-0. In a rematch with Michel Soro on July 9, 2022, the fighters clashed heads inadvertently in the third round. Soro was badly cut and the fight stopped. It was called a technical draw. It put a blemish on Madrimov's record that doesn't really belong.

But he'll be a massive underdog when he steps into the ring at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles in the main event of the first Riyadh Season card in the U.S., because his opponent will be none other than the legendary Terence Crawford.

At DraftKings, Crawford is -700 and Madrimov is +475. Crawford is -140 to win by knockout while Madrimov is +900 to win by KO and +1100 to win by decision.

Madrimov is no pushover, but it's hard to imagine him defeating Crawford, so taking advantage of those big numbers isn't attractive. Crawford has yet to show one iota of a slowdown despite being 37 going into the fight. He's been on point for every fight in his career and if Madrimov is going to win, he's going to have to beat Crawford at his best.

You're not going to make a living betting sports if you're laying 7-1 very often, so playing Crawford to win really isn't an option. So the only way I think to play this is to take a line that is much more reasonable.

Madrimov is strong and takes a good shot. Crawford often starts slowly but comes on late, and each of his last 11 fights has ended inside the distance. At DraftKings, it's +130 to go the full 12 rounds and -180 to not.

I'll lay one unit on the won't go the distance at -180 and pray for some big punches landed. I thought of laving -140 on Crawford to win by KO, but having the respect I do for Madrimov's skills, I wanted to have both guys fighting for me. So instead of relying just on Crawford to win by KO, I can bet it won't go the distance and having both of them working for me. If Madrimov manages to pull the unthinkable and stops Crawford, at least this way I'll cash.

Jared Anderson probably remains the top heavyweight prospect in boxing, but he'll face by far his sternest test on Saturday when meets veteran Martin Bakole on the Crawford-Madrimov undercard. Anderson, who is 17-0 with 15 KOs, is a -190 favorite at DraftKings. Bakole is 20-1 with 15 KOs.

Anderson, though, has gone the full 10 rounds in two of his last three bouts, wins over Charles Martin and Ryad Merhy. In between those two wins, he stopped Amdriy Rudenko in the fifth.

I think Anderson is a better athlete, better boxer and harder hitter than Bakole. Bakole is no joke, though, and he's ranked No. 1 by the WBA (though that is damning him with faint praise) and No. 10 by the WBC. 

Anderson is +175 to win by KO and +200 to win by decision. The over-under 8.5 rounds, with under at -125 and over at -110.

Bakole is +220 to win by KO and +900 to win by decision. 

Bakole can be hurt, and he was stopped in the 10th by Michael Hunter in 2018. Hunter is not a big heavyweight nor is he known as a big puncher. Anderson is both big and powerful.

I believe Bakole will give him trouble, as Martin did when they fought, but Anderson is too good to lose to a guy at this level. I'll lay two units on him at -190 to win, which would establish him at that point as a legitimate title contender.

Other plays:

• I'll take the plus money at +140 and bet the Isaac Cruz-Jose Valenzuela fight goes the distance.

• I'll lay the -300 and bet former heavyweight champion Andy Ruiz to defeat Jarrell Miller.