March 8 is a sacred date in boxing history. On that date in 1971, Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier met at Madison Square Garden in New York for the undisputed heavyweight title in what remains the biggest event in boxing history.
It's on that date, in just under two months, that former unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua will square off with former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou in the emerging capitol of the boxing world, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Promoters around the world are almost making fools of themselves as they suck up to Turki Alalshikh, the chairman of Saudi Arabia's general entertainment authority, because of the massive amounts of money the Saudi government has authorized him to spend on boxing.
The goal, at least from a boxing standpoint, should be to emerge with a healthier and more vibrant heavyweight division.
A healthy, motivated and successful Joshua is critical toward reaching that goal. Joshua is the closest thing we have today to the total package in boxing. He's a flawed fighter, and Ngannou has already hit upon one of those flaws multiple times when he's question the toughness of Joshua's chin.
When he's on point and on top of his game, there is no active heavyweight quite like Joshua. He's charismatic and thoughtful. He's agile and powerful. He's tenacious and aggressive.
He hasn't been that for quite a while, though, at least not since losing his title to Andy Ruiz via a stunning seventh-round knockout on June 1, 2019 in New York. He looked his best since losing to Ruiz on Dec. 23, when he dominated Otto Wallin over five one-sided rounds in the main event at "The Day of Reckoning" event in Riyadh and forced Wallin's corner to stop the bout.
His promoter, Eddie Hearn, could barely contain himself after that win. Joshua is all the way back, Hearn insisted that night, something he's repeated just about every moment he's appeared in public since. Wallin is a solid fighter, but he is not much of a puncher and so he didn't pose a threat to what Ngannou referred to as Joshua's "weak chin."
And while Wallin can box, he's not as agile as Joshua, nor as quick of either foot or hand, and he gave up a lot of size. That's a long way of saying that while Joshua's performance was encouraging, he's still not where he once was.
It'd be fair to call Joshua one of the top three heavyweights in the world, though undoubtedly behind unified champion Oleksandr Usyk and WBC champion Tyson Fury. Those two meet on Feb. 17 in Riyadh for the undisputed championship. Usyk has already beaten Joshua twice, and both he and Fury enter their bout with no losses.
That said, if Joshua can return to his former self, it would leave at the least three elite heavyweights on top of the division and create all sorts of intrigue. The intrigue that exists now is mainly twofold: Whether Ngannou, who was clearly the hardest one-punch hitter in UFC history, can repeat the feat he pulled off against Fury when they met in Riyadh on Oct. 28 and knock Joshua down.
Knocking Fury down, as Ngannou did in the third round of Fury's split-decision win, did Ngannou little good in the long run because he didn't throw enough punches to finish the job.
Ngannou managed to connect on just 59 punches over 10 desultory rounds against Fury. That'a good half-round for undisputed super bantamweight champion Naoya Inoue. It wasn't enough to put Fury, who has shown incredibly quick recuperative powers in his career, away.
In the fight, Ngannou landed 6, 6, 7, 8, 6, 5, 5, 10, 2 and 4 punches in each of the 10 rounds. When he needed to be aggressive and throw the most, in the final two rounds when the outcome hung in the balance, Ngannou landed a total of just six punches over the final six minutes.
Ngannou put Fury down even though he never caught him with his best shot. If he can catch Joshua with his best, chances are good that he can drop Joshua, as well, and perhaps put him away.
The thing Joshua and trainer Ben Davison have to prevent is allowing Ngannou to build momentum and confidence. They have to back Ngannou up and force him to keep his punch output down by making him defend. Ngannou is only in his second professional boxing match and we haven't seen him have to backpedal much in any fight he's taken, be it boxing or MMA.
Joshua's jab is a weapon, though, and it feels like a straight right landed flush from other guys when he throws it with conviction and lands cleanly. That will slow Ngannou and if he follows it with a right, he'll be able to back him up.
It will be a risk for Joshua to try to win a shootout against a guy whose best chance, to be honest, is to try to catch lightning in a bottle and land that one, big fight-changing shot.
That's the way he'll show he's back, by navigating the land mines out there, implementing his plan and forcing Ngannou to bow to his will.
Joshua is a -500 favorite according to BetOnline.ag, while Ngannou is +325.
If Joshua fights Ngannou with the conviction he did against Wallin, he'll make heavyweight boxing one of the sport's most intriguing divisions in 2024.