Artur Beterbiev has been as regular as the rain in Seattle in his professional boxing career. The IBF-WBC-WBO light heavyweight champion is 19-0 with 19 KOs heading into his title defense Saturday in Quebec City, Que., against highly regarded challenger Callum Smith.
The rugged Russian champion, who now lives in Montreal, has finished eight of his 19 bouts in less than three full rounds. He's finished five others in either Rounds 4 or 5. His other five bouts have gone seven rounds or more. None, though, went the full 12 and eight of his 19 finishes were KOs, where the referee reached the count of 10.
Smith, though, is probably his best opponent. Smith is 29-1 with 21 KOs, his only loss coming on Dec. 19, 2020, when he was routed by Canelo Alvarez by scores of 119-109 twice and 117-111. Smith has never been down in a professional fight.
At DraftKings sportsbook, Beterbiev is a -425 favorite, with Smith at +310. But it's the proposition bets on a finish that intrigue me.
I do think Smith has a chance to win this fight. He will have to walk a tightrope and avoid eating a flush shot on the chin from Beterbiev, but if he can fight smart defensively, make Beterbiev work and expend energy and then counter effectively, he could make it a long night.
Beterbiev is 38 and no fighter ever defeats Father Time. It catches up to all of them sooner or later. The ones who get out before they're exposed are the smart ones.
That's not to say that Beterbiev is finished, or close to the end. But he is facing perhaps the best boxer he's fought, a guy who is a sharp puncher and who has experience fighting a top-level star.
Stephen "Breadman" Edwards, the elite boxing training who is a keen observer of the sport, likes Beterbiev somewhere between six and eight, though he's one of the many warning it would be a mistake to overlook him.
Beterbiev is -220 at DraftKings to win by KO/TKO/DQ. But if you like him to win by KO -- getting the 10-count -- it's +225. If you just think he gets a TKO, it's a much more reasonable -110. The risk in placing either of those wagers is that you could handicap it correctly, have the right side and lose. If you have Beterbiev by KO, it's not inconceivable the referee could jump in quickly and halt it if Smith is hurt knowing Beterbiev's power. That way, he'd have seen it correctly but could still wind up a loser.
The play really should be Beterbiev to win, but it's a tough swallow to lay $425 for the chance to win $100.
So I'm going to gamble and recommend a play on Beterbiev by TKO at -110. The scenario here is that Beterbiev either drops Smith late in the fight and the referee waves it off without counting, or the corner throws in the towel.
I'd be more inclined to give Smith a chance to make it to the finish if he were more active, but his last bout was Aug. 20, 2022. His next soonest bout was 11 months prior to that. So in 28 months, he's boxed twice. That concerns me going against a guy like Beterbiev.
So I'll lay the $110 and hope to win $100 on Beterbiev by TKO.