Let's be honest: Never in my wildest dreams did I think at any time on or before July 28, 2023, that it would be wise for Terence Crawford to challenge Canelo Alvarez at super middleweight. Then, July 29 happened. On that night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Crawford obliterated the great Errol Spence Jr. in nine, one-sided rounds for the undisputed welterweight title, and suddenly the thought of Crawford challenging Alvarez didn't seem so ridiculous.
Let's not be confused, though: If the fight were to be put together, Alvarez would be a significant favorite, and deservedly so. There are weight classes in boxing for a reason, and we're reminded of that all the time. Alvarez himself was reminded of that on May 7, 2022, when he challenged Dmitry Bivol for the WBA light heavyweight title.
There had been talk in the past of Alvarez moving all the way up to cruiserweight, though that never panned out. Though Alvarez fought hard against Bivol, Bivol's size advantage was one of the factors that led to him winning a unanimous decision victory. Bivol is an elite fighter, one of the best regardless of weight. He's ranked ninth on our Sweet 16 of the world's best pound-for-pound fighters.
Size wasn't the only factor that led to Bivol's win, but it clearly played a role.
That brings us to Crawford (40-0, 31 KOs), who turned professional in 2008 at 137 pounds. Crawford won a lightweight title and then became undisputed champion at super lightweight and welterweight. He owed Spence a rematch, though Spence had cataract surgery and can't take the bout. The question, though, is who would want to see Crawford-Spence II again even if he could? It was a blowout of epic proportions, and not a bout that ended because of one big punch.
It's expected that Alvarez, who has one of the best resumes of any active fighters in the sport, will face Jermall Charlo in May in a pay-per-view that will be streamed on Amazon Prime Video, the Premier Boxing Champions' new broadcast partner.
If it occurs, it may be marketed as some kind of revenge bout for Charlo, since Alvarez blasted his twin brother, Jermell Charlo, on Sept. 30, and won a wide unanimous decision. Jermell Charlo didn't really deserve the bout when he got it, and it's hardly fair to say that Jermall does, either. Jermall Charlo was off for more than 31 months when he returned in December to decision Jose Benavidez Jr.
Crawford stopped Benavidez in the 12th round of their 2018 welterweight title bout.
There would be a buzz for Alvarez-Crawford that wouldn't exist for Alvarez-Jermall Charlo.
Crawford is ranked No. 1 pound-for-pound by me, as well as by ESPN and The Ring. Alvarez is ranked fourth by Ring, fifth by ESPN and sixth by KevinIole.com. Charlo is unranked.
That's not necessarily a reason to make a fight, but it's going to help it sell. Crawford is the one guy who might have the skill, the gumption and the flat-out toughness to jump up and chop down a giant like Alvarez.
Spoke to @betonline_ag and got numbers on a potential Canelo-Crawford fight:
— Kevin Iole (@KevinI) January 30, 2024
Canelo -225
Crawford +185
At the post-fight news conference following Alvarez's drubbing of Jermell Charlo, I asked Stephen Espinoza, then president of Showtime Sports, about a potential Alvarez-Crawford fight.
"If anyone had proposed a Canelo versus Crawford fight six months ago, they would have been laughed out of the room," Espinoza said. "It was only because of that singular performance [against Errol Spence] on July 29 that this is even a conversation. It was that scintillating of a performance, and given that, I don't think it's a ridiculous conversation to have. There are weight classes for a reason, and I think it's a big challenge."
The key phrase, though, is "I don't think it's a ridiculous conversation to have."
So let's look at what fighters other than Crawford might make sense for Alvarez's next fight:
• David Benavidez is the interim WBC super middleweight champion and laid a beatdown on Demetrious Andrade on Nov. 25 in Las Vegas. Benavidez stopped Andrade on the stool after six rounds to improve his record to 28-0 with 24 knockouts. If they choose to go with anyone other than Crawford, Benavidez is the guy who makes the most sense.
• Jermall Charlo beat Benavidez's baby brother, but it wasn't that significant of a win and he hasn't been at all active. And while it's not fair perhaps to Charlo, we saw what Alvarez did to his identical twin brother and it's hard not to imagine we'd be asked to pay $85 for a similarly one-sided drubbing.
• Jaime Munguia stopped John Ryder in nine rounds on Saturday, and Ryder went the distance with Alvarez last year. But both Munguia and trainer Freddie Roach believe they need one more fight together before challenging Alvarez. It would be fun if it happens, but Munguia isn't necessarily ready yet.
There is really nobody else. Either Bivol or unified light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev would be good opponents, but they're expected to fight each other in June in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the undisputed 175-pound title.
So why not go big on Amazon? A Crawford-Canelo fight would be a million-buy fight, and could hit 1.5 million if promoted properly and things fall their way. It just doesn't seem like an Alvarez-Jermall Charlo would sell all that much and given the likely high price point, there will be plenty of complaints.
By making Crawford-Canelo first, you're giving your new partner the best fight you can make at the moment, and leaving open the possibility of a second big score later in the year with a rematch. And if the first bout doesn't demand a rematch, David Benavidez and Munguia would always be there for Canelo. It wouldn't be bad to have Benavidez and Munguia fight each other so the winner is there for a potential Alvarez fight in either September of November.
Presumably Spence will recover from his cataract surgery by then and he and Crawford could then fight if there is demand for it.
But Crawford is already 36, something that needs to be considered when putting these bouts together. He's campaigned for the biggest fights out there and is eminently qualified for a bout with Canelo.
Coming out big with a mega-bout like Alvarez-Crawford is also a good way to improve relations with your new broadcast partner.
It's a win-win situation all around.
Isn't it?

Mikey Williams/Top Rank
Pound-for-pound No. 1 Terence Crawford deserves a crack against Canelo Alvarez.

