Randy Brown has won five of his last six fights and has to be getting closed to being ranked in the UFC's stacked welterweight division.
On Saturday on the main card of UFC Vegas 85, Brown will face Muslim Salikhov in a bout that was slated for UFC 296 but canceled late when Brown fell ill. Brown will bring advantages of four inches of height and nine inches of reach into the fight against Salikhov.
Salikhov likes to pressure, but Brown has the tools to keep him at a distance, particularly if he keeps pumping that jab. He is not, though, underestimating Salikhov. In fact, his view is quite the opposite. Salikhov has lost two of his last three, with a win over Andre Fialho sandwiched around losses to Li Jingliang and Nicolas Dalby.
“I think he’s tremendous,” Brown said. “Explosive guy. A lot of the newer people don’t know much about him, but I know what’s up. I’ve been watching him for a while. He was ranked No. 12 at one point. Dangerous guy. Doesn’t matter the age or nothing like that. Doesn’t matter. I think he’s still the same guy that he’s been and someone that I need to take extremely serious. I think he’s a tough fight for me.”
Salikhov is 6-3 in the UFC with four KOs, and has 13 knockouts and two submissions among his 19 career wins. Still, Brown is a solid -270 favorite at DraftKings sports book. Salikhov is +220.
The over/under on the scheduled three-round fight is 21/2 rounds. Over is -166 with under at +130.
Brown has been on a nice roll, winning five of his last six and seven of his last nine. And he seems to have the tools to dictate how the fight goes.
So I'll lay the -270 and bet two units on Brown to win. But I also think this is a long fight as Brown will probably use his movement and his jab to keep Salikhov outside where he'll be less dangerous. So I'll lay the -166 and bet the fight goes over 21/2.
Stoliarenko a solid play over Carolina
I liked Julija Stoliarenko to defeat Luana Carolina before Carolina missed weight by three pounds on her first try on Friday. Carolina sweated off another pound and missed officially by two. That just leads me to believe more in Stoliarenko.
Stoliarenko has been a very up-and-down fighter and has lost four of her last six, but is coming off a submission of Molly McCann.
This fit pits a black belt in Stoliarenko against a blue belt in Carolina. I'll take the +140 and bet Stoliarenko to win by submission. Stoliarenko is -148 to win, and Carolina is +124, but I'm going to pass on the side and just take Stoliarenko at plus money to win by submission.
How long does Moicano-Dober last?
Renato Moicano and Drew Dober are both outstanding finishers, and have a combined 30 finishes in 62 career fights between them. But in their combined 17 losses, they have been finished 10 times. That means that 40 of their 62 fights have ended inside the distance.
I think this will be another one that doesn't require the judges'.
The over under is 11/2 rounds. Under is favored at -130, with over at even money, +100.
This is an important fight in the division, with Moicano 13th and Dober at 15. Dober has spoken of mixing up his game and being willing to grapple with Moicano, who has 10 submissions among his 17 wins. Moicano knows Dober has crushing KO power and so he'll surely be way on the feet.
That leads me to believe it's going to be a longer fight, and so I'll play that the fight goes over 11/2 rounds at +100.
I think Dober's varied game will enable him to get the KO in the back stages of the fight. Dober, the lightweight division's all-time KO leader with nine, is +225 to win by KO. I'll take the plus money and bet he does it yet again.
Last week (UFC 297): 3-2, $222 profit.
Year to date: 3-2, 60.0 percent, $222 profit.