LAS VEGAS -- Jack Hermansson got out of the gates quickly in his UFC career, winning seven of his first nine bouts, accumulating five finishes along the way. Since then, though, he's just been another guy and if you look at his record, nothing screams contender. A 2019 decision win over Jacare Souza made him 7-2 in the UFC and 20-4 overall in MMA, and he clearly looked like he was on his path to a title shot.
He's gone 3-4 since, alternating wins and losses and has done nothing to make anyone think he's anything special. He's a good, solid fighter who isn't showing greatness in any area. He's decent across the board, and while that will make you competitive most times, it's not going to lead to big wins over elite talent.
Now, the question to be answered here is whether his opponent on Saturday at Apex in the main event of UFC Vegas 86, Joe Pyfer, is elite. The honest answer know is, we don't know. There isn't enough data, but there are plenty of indications to suggest he can be. Pyfer is known as one of the hardest hitters in the UFC, but he has trained jiu-jitsu since he was 4 and said he's more than comfortable grappling with Hermansson.
He's shown the ability throughout his career to adapt, and he's aggressive to the extreme. That could lead to mistakes, but I'd rather have a fighter who believes in himself and wants to win rather than one who isn't so confident.
At DraftKings sports book, Pyfer is a -258 favorite to win, which seems a touch high to me. Hermansson is +210.
I like Pyfer to win, but I'd shop around to see if I could get a better line. He's a whopping -275 at BetMGM with Hermansson still at +210. At William Hill, Pyfer is -270 and Hermansson is +220.
I'd wait to see if money comes in on Hermansson before I jump on Pyfer to win, but given I need to make a play, I'll put one unit (all units are $100) and take Pyfer at -258. I like him to win by knockout, and he's even money at all of those sites. So I'll lay two units on Pyfer at +100 to win by knockout.
Can Ige get untracked versus Fili?
Dan Ige has struggled of late, going 2-4 in his last six, with five of the six fights going the distance. The only bout of Ige's last six that didn't reach the scorecard was his Jan. 14, 2023, KO of Damon Jackson.
He faces late replacement Andre Fili, who is coming off of a impressive first-round KO of Lucas Almeida. Ige is -170 at DraftKings and Fili is +142.
Fili can be explosive, but he tends to make mistakes and Ige is the type of guy who can exploit them. To me, though, this bout screams distance fight. It's -165 to go the distance, so I'll lay the money and play it to go three full.
Viera, Petrosyan a close battle
Rodolfo Viera is a highly touted Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, and while he's been relatively successful, going 4-2 in the UFC, he hasn't been the dominant force I thought he might become.
He's -118 to win at DraftKings, which also has him at +165 against Petrosyan. Petrosyan has never been submitted and only been finished once during his 9-2 career. He has a quality win over Gregory Rodrigues.
Petrosyan hits hard, but he's not particularly quick and I think Viera can take advantage of that. So I'll take the plus money and play him to win by submission.
Last week (UFC Vegas 85): 2-3, $66 loss.
Year to date: 5-5, 60.0 percent, $156 profit.