With each bizarre social media post or strange utterance Ryan Garcia makes, the odds favoring Devin Haney in their WBC super lightweight title bout at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn keep going skyward. Haney is now a -900 favorite to defeat Garcia in the rubber match of their personal rivalry. They have fought six times as amateurs, with each man winning three.
There is little doubt, though, how the fight on Saturday will go: It would be an all-time stunner if Garcia were to win it.
Haney (31-0, 15 KOs) is -900 at the Westgate SuperBook, with Garcia (24-1, 20 KOs) at +600. It's worth noting that the SuperBook opened Haney at -500 and Garcia at +375, so the line shift has been considerable.
Haney is -800 at DraftKings sports book with Garciaat +550. They're both highly skilled fighters, and Garcia seemingly has clear advantages in speed, quickness and power.
But Garcia, who has a history of mental health problems, hasn't seemed right for a while now. They got into a shoving contest during a photo opportunity at the Empire State Building in Manhattan on Tuesday, though to be fair, it was Haney who angrily shoved Garcia. The two were supposed to throw out the first pitch at the New York Mets' game against the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday evening at Citi Field, but it was canceled given the Mets' concern that something could happen between them.
Garcia's social media account has been a disaster, and ticket sales for the fight have been so poor that promoters took the dramatic step last week of lowering prices.
If both were fully prepared and in the right frame of mind, it's a very close fight and a difficult one to pick. Now, the only difficult decision to make is when to get down on Haney and how much to lay.
Generally in these big fights, the favorite gets bet up until a point on fight day when it's so high, smart money begins to come in on the other side, as there is suddenly real value there. Haney is a -900 favorite at some books and it wouldn't be a shock if it kept going up. The question is, do you bet Haney now and hope it keeps going up, or do you wait until what seems like the inevitable onslaught of Garcia money comes in and drives the price down?
Haney is not a knockout puncher, and only has knockouts in 15 of his 31 pro fights. Yet, at DraftKings he's only +180 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. Garcia by decision, by contrast, is +1400 and by KO/TKO/DQ is +950.
If you think this has all but a troll job by Garcia and the crazy posts were somehow an act that he thought would garner publicity for the fight, then you are in luck because Garcia's never seen odds against him like this. If you think he's going to come out and overwhelm Garcia, you only have to risk $100 to make a $10,000 profit by picking Garcia to win in the first round.
But let's be real here: All available evidence suggests there's little chance that Garcia wins the fight, and that's why the line keeps moving in Haney's direction. The fight, which is available for purchase on PPV.com, figures to be a one-sided win for Haney. Even if both were sharp and as prepared as possible, Haney has an edge in boxing skill and ring IQ.
Haney's jab and footwork figure to give Garcia trouble and create openings for Haney to land his good shots. Haney is sitting there with several gigantic fights ahead of him if he wins, including the likes of Gervonta Davis, Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez, Subriel Matias and others.
He's not going to fall for Garcia's tricks or play the games that Garcia is trying to play. It's sad because this potentially could have been a memorable fight with two evenly matched and highly skilled fighters. But it's now lost plenty of its luster because of how Garcia has handled himself in the build-up.
I have two plays on this fight: Haney to win and Haney under 10.5 rounds. Under 10.5 rounds is +160 right now at DraftKings, so that's a nice return. Over, if you think it goes longer, is -220.
The question of when to bet Haney is the only think I have to decide. He's -900 at the WestgateSuperBook and I'm going to wait for it to drop. I don't think it gets back to the opening number, but I'll wait to see if it drops under -700. If it gets below that, I'll make a play on Haney. If not, I'll pass.
Hopefully, it's a fight for the ages, but speaking of passing, I wouldn't bet on that, either.