Jose Aldo remains one of the greatest fighters in UFC history, and he'll have a massive homefield advantage on Saturday at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, when he ends a brief retirement to face Jonathan Martinez in the co-main event of UFC 301.
Now a UFC Hall of Famer, Aldo is a slight underdog to Martinez. At Draft Kings sports book, Martinez is a -162 favorite, with Aldo at +136.
Martinez is dangerous with his kicks, the very tactic that helped a young and unknown Aldo rise from the favelas in Rio to become one of the greatest mixed martial artists who ever lived. Urijah Faber probably still feels the pain from those kicks Aldo delivered in their featherweight title bout at WEC 48 on April 24, 2010.
It's almost as if Martinez studied Aldo's fights as he was coming up because he's utilized his leg kicks heavily during his recent run of six consecutive wins and eight wins in nine fights.
The line is shaded toward Aldo only because of where the fight is being fought. Aldo is known as "The King of Rio," and he'll undoubtedly receive a hero's welcome when he makes the walk on Saturday. And anything he does is sure to get a huge rise out of the crowd, which always has the possibility of influencing the judges.
Martinez, though, is on his game and looking impressive as he moves up the ranks. I think he'll chop Aldo's legs up and potentially stop him.
I'll lay the -162 and take Martinez to win. If this fight were in the U.S., Martinez likely would be a 9-5 or even a 2-1 favorite, so there is value on him in this spot. I think Aldo will make it the distance, though if you saw Martinez's fights against Cub Swanson and Adrian Yanez, you'd question that. Martinez brutalized their legs with his kicks.
I'd rather not play the over-under in this spot because of the boost Aldo is sure to get from the crowd, but I still believe Martinez wins it.
Pantoja makes title defense as solid favorite
Steve Erceg, ranked 10th at flyweight, gets the next shot at the flyweight title when he challenges champion Alexandre Pantoja in the main event. Erceg's spot on the card has drawn criticism, but that doesn't lessen his talent. He took his UFC debut at UFC 289 against David Dvorak on about a week's notice. He made the long trek from his native Australia to Vancouver, B.C., and went out and put together a strong performance in a decision win.
He's as tough as they come.
Pantoja, though, is a cut above most in this rapidly improving division. He's won five in a row and six of his last seven. He's got a pair of wins over ex-champion Brandon Moreno and two more over top contender Brandon Royval. He's blossomed into a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable wherever he needs to fight to get the job done.
Draft Kings has him at -198, with Erceg at +164.
I was expecting Pantoja to be -250 or even -300, particularly given he'll be fighting in front of the home crowd. We also know that Pantoja can go hard for five full rounds, but Erceg has yet to prove that.
I'll lay two units on Pantoja to win at -198.
Newcomer Mauricio Ruffy a good play over Jamie Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy earned his contract in the UFC with a ground-and-pound finish of Raimond Magomedaliev last year on Dana White's Contender Series. It was his fourth consecutive win and raised his record to 9-1 overall. Significantly, all nine of his victories have been by stoppage.
He makes his UFC debut on Saturday at UFC 301 against veteran Jamie Mullarkey, and this seems like an almost too good to be true matchup for him. Mullarkey has been around a long time and has scored quality wins over the likes of Michael Johnson. But he's 3-3 since 2022 and has been knocked out in each of those losses.
Ruffy is a -166 favorite at Draft Kings, with Mullarkey at +140. The over-under is 1.5 rounds, with over the favorite at -166 and under +130.
Ruffy looks like he has the talent to be a factor in the division. I will lay the -166 and play Ruffy to win. I do like the over but I don't want to lay better than 8-5, so I'll pass on that.
Vitor Petrino and Anthony Smith looked like a long fight
Vitor Petrino is a whopping -520 favorite over veteran Anthony Smith in their light heavyweight clash. Smith is a +390 underdog. Petrino is 11-0 and is coming off of a decision victory that retired Tyson Pedro in March. He's got a lot of momentum, but two of his last three wins went the distance.
Smith, of course, is the former title challenger who has dropped four of his last five. It's almost like the UFC is saying this is a changing of the guard and having Petrino move up as Smith moves out.
One has to be worried about Smith's recent performance level, so I'll pass on the side. But I do like Smith's durability and willingness to keep going. Smith went the distance in losses to Glover Teixeira and Johnny Walker in 2023.
So I'll lay the -166 and bet that the fight goes more than 1.5 rounds. Petrino has had one finish quicker than that in his four UFC fights and in his Dana White's Contender Series bout. So I feel confident it is going to go into the third round.