Zhilei Zhang and Deontay Wilder have much in common as they head into their fight on Saturday in the final bout of the "5 versus 5" card at Kingdom Arena Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. They're both massive heavyweights. They both punch extremely hard. They both have lost to Joseph Parker in their most recent bouts and they both desperately need a win.
There was a big difference, though, between their losses to Parker. Wilder faced Parker on Dec. 23 in Riyadh and shockingly showed no life or zip. He was strangely inactive and didn't unleash the fast combinations he had become known for throwing. He did little to threaten Parker and lost a wide unanimous decision by scores of 120-108, 118-111 and 118-110.
Parker defeated Zhang by majority decision on March 8 in Riyadh. Zhang dropped Parker twice, but Parker got up and won a decision by scores of 114-112, 115-111 and 113-113. Parker simply outboxed Zhang.
The other big difference between them, at least at their peaks, was their hand and foot speed. Wilder had a lot of it, and Zhang didn't.
But one has to wonder if the three fights with Tyson Fury, in which Wilder went 0-2-1, got dropped five times and was stopped in the last two bouts, took the fight out of "The Bronze Bomber." Each boxer can take only so many punches in a lifetime, and perhaps Wilder hit his quota in the brutally tough third fight with Fury.
That makes it hard to pick a winner on Saturday. At the Draft Kings sports book, Zhang is a -150 favorite. Wilder is +120 on the buyback. The over-under is 61/2 rounds, with under -125 and over -110.
Wilder's power comes from great speed and torque, and if he's lost a lot of that, he has lost a lot of what makes him great. Zhang's power is from accuracy, timing and sheer physical strength.
If both were on tops of their games, I'd take Wilder to win. But given I suspect he's damaged goods, I'm going to lay the -150 and bet on Zhang to take it. I will also put one unit on the over and wager $110 to win $100 that the fight goes beyond 61/2 rounds.
Other plays:
• I'll lay -225 and bet Filip Hrgovic to win over Daniel Dubois. Dubois is a good boxer with power, but his Achilles heel is his chin and I think Hrgovic finds it. He may not stop him, but I'd guess Hrgovic will at least drop him and be able to win the fight by decision.
• I'll take the +180 and bet Austin Williams to defeat Hamzah Sheeraz.
• I'll bet Raymond Ford at +125 by decision over Nick Ball.