I briefly considered a headline for this story that read, "Tom Aspinall: Better than Jon Jones?" Not wanting, however, to give UFC CEO Dana White a coronary a couple of days before a pay-per-view card, though, I went a different direction.
Aspinall, the UFC's interim heavyweight champion, has rapidly become one of the organization's most promising talents. He defends his belt against Curtis Blaydes on Saturday in the co-main event of UFC 304 in Manchester, England. Blaydes is a formidable opponent, and actually holds a win over Aspinall. They met in London on July 23, 2022, but Aspinall injured his knee 15 seconds into the fight and the bout was stopped.
Aspinall, though, is a significant favorite to defeat Blaydes and keep hopes alive for a unification fight with heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Jones is expected to fight former champion Stipe Miocic, potentially at Madison Square Garden in New York in November, though that bout is far from finalized.
Aspinall, who is 14-3 with all 14 victories coming by finish, is a -375 favorite at DraftKings sportsbook. Blaydes is +295. Aspinall is just about even money, at +110, to win by first-round KO. That is a remarkable number against a highly regarded opponent like Blaydes, though it's also because Blaydes has been knocked out twice by Francis Ngannou and once each by UFC knockout king Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich.
The fight most have wanted to see is Jones versus Aspinall, though there is plenty of interest in a Jones versus Alex Pereiera bout, as well. Aspinall stands as the most serious threat to Jones heading into a bout since Jones met Daniel Cormier in a light heavyweight bout. Jones, and White, are committed to fighting Miocic first and there has been zero momentum toward a Jones-Aspinall unification bout.
On fight night, Aspinall will be 31 years, three months and 17 days old heading into his 18th professional bout. It's fair to compare him with Jones at similar points in their careers. When Jones was heading into his 18th fight, against Vitor Belfort in Toronto, he was 25 years, two months and four days old. He was 16-1, with his only loss a disqualification against Matt Hamill for an illegal elbow.
Jones was the light heavyweight champion and was challenging then-middleweight champion Anderson Silva for pound-for-pound supremacy with 17 pro fights under his belt.
Heading into the Belfort fight, Jones had defeated Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans and Ryan Bader. Rua and Evans are in the UFC Hall of Fame. Ruaa, Jackson, Machida and Evans were UFC light heavyweight champions. Bader was a Bellator heavyweight and light heavyweight champion.
He would go on to submit Vitor Belfort with a keylock. Belfort was also a former UFC light heavyweight champion and the UFC 12 tournament winner. The win over Belfort capped perhaps the most dominant individual stretch in MMA history. From Feb. 5, 2011, when Jones submitted Bader with a guillotine choke, through the Belfort win on Sept. 22, 2012, Jones went 6-0 with four submissions and a TKO while beating five former UFC champions and a two-division Bellator champion.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports
Jon Jones is widely considered the greatest fighter in MMA history.
That run turned Jones from an elite prospect into a legend and now into the man widely regarded as the greatest mixed martial artist ever.
As great as he is, Aspinall hasn't had a win that's been close to what Jones accomplished in his first 17 fights. Aspinall's best victories are a first-round KO of Pavlovich in their interim title fight and a first-round submission victory via armbar over Alexander Volkov.
Both wins are impressive, to be sure, but don't come close to matching Jones' quality of opposition.
Now, this is where it gets tricky.
Who is better at the moment, Aspinall or Jones? Well, Aspinall is far more active than Jones and like the GOAT, is a multi-faceted fighter. Aspinall is 6-5 and weighs around 260 pounds. He's a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is an elite striker. He's a solid wrestler, though not nearly in Jones' class, and incorporates all aspects of his game seamlessly.
Jones has fought just twice in this decade. He won a decision over Dominick Reyes in a light heavyweight title defense at UFC 247 on Feb. 8, 2020 in Houston. There was a slight amount of controversy over the result that night, as 14 of 21 media members who submitted their scores to MMA Decisions had Reyes winning. Jones didn't fight again until March 4, 2023, when he defeated Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight title that had been stripped from Ngannou. Jones hasn't fought since. Aspinall has fought eight times since Jones defeated Reyes, with Jones only going once.
If we matched them prime-for-prime, it's almost impossible to pick Aspinall to win. It's not to say he couldn't win, but Jones' track record is such and his wrestling is so dominant that he'd have to be a solid favorite.
Now, though, he's 37 and not nearly as active. In Aspinall, he'd be facing a legitimately bigger man who is quicker than he is and is one of the game's best finishers. Now, that fight would be a coin toss.
Jones has nothing left to prove. Aspinall still must make his case and needs to start on Saturday by defeating Blaydes. If he does that, and deals well with Blaydes' wrestling, we'll have a far better idea of how a bout with Jones might go.
There's no guarantee a Jones-Aspinall bout ever happens, as Jones may retire after facing Miocic. But if it does, it would likely be the most significant heavyweight fight the UFC has ever staged.