Leon Edwards has spent time in the Octagon with Belal Muhammad, and while the bout ended on an inadvertent eye poke just 18 seconds into the second round, the UFC's welterweight champion believes that was enough time for him to know what to expect when he defends his belt against Muhammad on Saturday in the main event of UFC 304 in Manchester, England.
Edwards oozes confidence heading into the third defense.
"I'm taking him seriously and I'm not listening to what no one else thinks of him," Edwards said. "I've been in there with him and I know he's taking it seriously, as well. I'm focusing on getting out there and getting the job done."
At DraftKings sportsbook, Edwards is a -250 favorite, with Muhammad at +205. The over-under is 4.5 rounds, with over a -215 favorite. Under is +165. The fight is -210 to go the distance and Edwards is +100 to win by decision.
Two fights after their first meeting, Edwards won the welterweight title with a stunning head kick KO of Kamaru Usman. Muhammad, though, has quietly been doing great work since their first meeting at Apex on March 13, 2021, during the pandemic.
Muhammad has won five in a row that night, part of a larger 9-0 streak that includes the no-contest. In his most recent five bouts, he's defeated Demian Maia, Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady and Gilbert Burns.
The most noticeable thing about Muhammad in that stretch has been how he's increasingly put his skils together. And while he's not the world's greatest striking, his striking is vastly better than it was three-plus years ago when he first took on Edwards. And the improvements in his striking have made his wrestling, always a strength, even more of a threat.
As a result, I'm going to take the plus money and bet on Muhammad to win the welterweight title. This is a very close fight that could go either way, and mistakes will likely decide it. Edwards has done well with wrestle-heavy fighters in defeating Usman and Colby Covington, so Muhammad won't be able to be one-dimensional.
Muhammad, though, has developed at a steady pace. He's in elite condition and will be able to go hard for 25 minutes.
In addition to playing Muhammad to win at +205, I'm going to lay the 210 and bet the fight goes the distance.
Aspinall should retain interim heavyweight title by finish
Curtis Blaydes has a KO victory over Tom Aspinall on his record, but don't be fooled. Their 2022 bout ended just 15 seconds in when Aspinall's knee gave out and the fight was stopped.
Aspinall is 14-3 in his career with 14 finishes, and oddsmakers are expecting another short fight. At BetMGM, Aspinall is -400 to win and -135 to win in Round 1.
Blaydes is a quality opponent and while he's been kayoed in all of his losses, by notable punchers Francis Ngannou (twice), Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich, he's more than capable of extending the fight.
Aspinall, though, may be the best all-around fighter that Blaydes has faced, which is saying a mouthful. Aspinall is extremely quick, has good power and technical striking and elite jiu-jitsu.
I think Aspinall's fast hands will eventually find the target and he'll KO Blaydes. Aspinall by KO/TKO/DQ is -175, so I'll lay the money and bet on Aspinall by KO.
Other plays
• I'll lay -115 and take King Green to defeat Paddy Pimblett (-105).
• I switched my pick on this one after Muhammad Mokaev struggled to make weight. Mokaev is a -165 favorite at BetMGM, but I'll take the plus money at +135 and play Manel Kape to win.
• I'll play no at even money on the prop bet on whether the Molly McCann-Bruna Brasil will go the distance.