LAS VEGAS -- The bookmakers who set the lines for the Sean O'Malley-Merab Dvalishvili bantamweight title fight were making a statement about their opinion of how Dvalishvili might capture the title on Saturday when they meet in the main event of Noche UFC at Sphere.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Dvalishvili is a +110 underdog after opening as a large favorite. O'Malley is now a -130 favorite.
But the numbers that are most telling are these:
• Dvalishvili by submission is +1400.
• Dvalishvili by KO is +750.
• Dvalishvilil by decision is +130.
• Over-under is 4.5 rounds. Over is -140.
Ray Longo, who has coached Dvalishvili, said he's not surprised by the swing in the odds from Dvalishvili to O'Malley.
"Look, this is going to be a weird fight," Longo said. "They both bring something completely different to the table that they've never seen before. Like, Merab has faced good strikers, but not rangy counter strikers who know how to move and are a little harder to corner. Like Jose Aldo is a great striker. So is Marlon Moraes. But they come forward, so it makes it a little different. And obviously, O'Malley's never faced anyone with the pressure and the gas tank of Merab."
And that's where those proposition bets come into play: O'Malley is going to try to keep Dvalishvili at the end of his punches. If he hits him square with a jab, Dvalishvili is going to continue to press ahead. If O'Malley lands a combination, Dvalishvili is inexorably going to trudge ahead.
He's going to try to win the fight by mauling O'Malley. He's not a submission expert like a Demian Maia nor is he an elite striker like Alex Pereira. But no one in this sport has the gas tank Dvalishvili does and unless O'Malley hurts him badly, he's going to attack repeatedly.
Longo knows from first-hand experience how relentless Dvalishvili can be.
"Once he gets a hold of you, he'll wear on you," Longo said."I've trained a lot of wrestlers. They go in and if they can't get the takedown, they're out. They don't want to expend the energy. This kid just doesn't care. It's going to be over and over and over and over and over again. He either has to be put out completely or I think he's always going to be in your face."
O'Malley vowed to open the cut above Dvalishvili's right eye that Dvalishvili suffered in training. Dvalishvili said the cut has healed and isn't going to be a problem. UFC CEO/President Dana White, who criticized Dvalishvili for posting video of the cut on social media, said the cut is small.
But O'Malley, who is one of the sport's quickest and most accurate punchers, vowed to make the cut a problem.
"This right hand don't miss," O'Malley said.
Dvalishvili took some significant blows from Henry Cejudo, an Olympic gold medal-winning wrestler who is not noted as a striker, in their bout which Dvalishvili won by decision at UFC 298 on Feb. 17 in Anaheim, Calif. That's led to speculation that if Cejudo can hit him so cleanly, what might O'Malley, one of the game's finest strikers, do?
Even Longo expects O'Malley to score.
"Hey, he's going to get punched in the face," Longo said of Dvalishvili. "We all know that."
But before his win over Cejudo that earned him the title shot, he defeated Moraes, Aldo and Petr Yan in succession. Each of them are elite strikers but Dvalishvili's pace and pressure shut their striking down.
He's heard the back-handed compliments that he wins by cardio, but he's just shrugged it off. He noted that non-strikers have won big bouts in the past, including Serra knocking out Georges St-Pierre for the title.
"I've heard that but I'm the No. 1 contender and I'm fighting for the title," Dvalishvili said. "I'm good everywhere."
He's not a one-trick pony though he doesn't have that one elite finishing skill like O'Malley. White is excited because of the contrasting styles. Longo noted that the outcome will likely be determined by whichever fighter best controls the distance.
White said that battle is what makes the bout so intriguing.
"What I love about this fight is that you have this great striker who has the ability to put guys away fighting a guy who is just relentless and in your face the entire time," White said. "Merab is just tough and aggressive and nasty and in your face and making you work and making you work and never giving you a chance. I love that. You have two guys who are going for the same thing who have two significant different approaches. That's why I love this fight."