LAS VEGAS -- Mark Twain once said "there are lies, damned lies and statistics," and that's so true in betting. One could use numbers in boxing wagering to be convinced of almost anything.
It's particularly true in the super middleweight championship match Saturday at T-Mobile Arena between Canelo Alvarez and challenger Edgar Berlanga. Alvarez is a known quantity and has held world titles at 154, 160, 168 and 175 pounds.
Let's look at the statistics, though, to discover the "advantages" that Berlanga has:
• He's 22-0 with 17 knockouts, and he began his career with 16 consecutive first-round KOs.
• He's younger, 27 to Alvarez's 24.
• He's bigger, with a 5.5-inch edge in height and a 3-inch edge in reach.
Of course, Berlanga has little to no chance to win the fight assuming it's Alvarez himself who shows up on Saturday and not an impostor. At ESPN Bet, Alvarez is a whopping -2000 favorite, with Berlanga at +900. Those are staggering numbers in favor of Alvarez.
And they make it almost impossible to bet on him. If you wanted to make a profit of $500 on Alvarez, you'd have to risk $10,000. Do you want to do that in a sport where one punch can change history?
I don't know about you, but that's not my way of enjoying a fight.
In this case, Alvarez has some statistics that work in his favor:
• He's never been knocked down in his career, while Berlanga has been down as a pro.
• Alvarez has fought in 25 world title fights, going 22-2-1. This will be Berlanga's first championship match.
• Alvarez is 9-0 at super middleweight.
If you want to be the fight, the choice is clear: You either bet Alvarez to win by KO or you play the over-under. Alvarez by KO is -300 at ESPN Bet. Berlanga is supposedly the puncher but he is +2500 to win by knockout.
This is where we must acknowledge that Mike Tyson was a 42-1 favorite over Buster Douglas in 1990 when Douglas scored one of the most famous KOs in history by stopping Tyson in the 10th round in Japan. But Douglas had beaten former champions Greg Page, Trevor Berbick and Oliver McCall before defeating Tyson. He'd been regarded as a talented but underachieving fighter at the point he met Tyson.
There's always a chance, but as the legendary Gorilla Monsoon often said to Bobby "The Brain" Heenan, it's "highly unlikely" that will occur.
Given that, I'll lay two units on Alvarez at -300 to win by KO. I'll also play one of ESPN Bet's props. They have a prop that is -105 that says Alvarez to win, to record 1+ knockdowns and to win in under 8.5 rounds. I'll lay the money on that.
I'll also lay one unit on no at -330 on the prop asking if the fight will go the distance.
Other bets:
• I'll lay -200 and bet that the Erislandy Lara-Danny Garcia fight goes the distance.
• I'll lay -200 and play Caleb Plant by KO over Trevor McCumby.