Proposition bets are always fun to look at, but they're frequently tough to wager on because, let's face it, the bookmakers are good.
But in the main event of UFC 307 on Saturday at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, there's a play that, well, has to at least be explored. Alex Pereira defends his light heavyweight belt in the main event against Khalil Rountree in a fight that is expected to be a stand-up battle.
In his UFC career, Pereira is 1-for-1 in takedowns, landing one against Israel Adesanya at UFC 284. Rountree has never attempted a takedown, and that point has been the topic of much discussion.
Rountree created the mini-controversy inadvertently during a podcast appearance on UFC Hall of Famer Michael Bisping's show. Rountree said he wouldn't shoot. He clarified that Thursday at the final news conference.
"The main thing I was trying to say is that I've worked myself hard enough to get to this point," Rountree said. "It would not make sense to switch who I am as a fighter, to completely switch the game plan to secure the win."
That said, Rountree said he would try a takedown if he was hurt by Pereira and the situation called for it.
DraftKings sportsbook took Rountree at his word and didn't put up a line on whether he'd land a takedown. But since Pereira has not only tried but completed a takedown in the UFC, it made a line on him hitting one against Rountree.
Over 0.5 takedowns landed by Pereira is +700, while under 0.5 takedowns landed is -1800.
Now, there is no way you could possibly lay $1,800 to win $100, but it's intriguing to think of getting +700 on Pereira doing it once.
Rountree is a hard hitter and given the two are going to be going toe-to-toe for most of the bout, it's not out of the question that Pereira could be buzzed and go for the takedown.
But there is another prop that ties into this one that I think I'll play instead. DraftKings has over-under prop bets on how many significant strikes each man will land.
For Rountree, it's -115 whether it's over or under 29.5 significant strikes landed. In his last five fights, Rountree has landed 53, 16, 85, 26 and 38 significant strikes. He's surpassed 29.5 in three of those five. But he's facing one of the sport's greats, as well as one of its best finishers.
The fight shouldn't go very long, so I'm going to play under 29.5 significant strikes for Rountree and lay -115.
For Pereira, the over-under on significant strikes landed is 38.5 and the line is -115 either way. In his last five, 38, 24, 38, 70 and 49. So Pereira only surpassed that total twice in his last five.
He is likely to score a KO, but given it very well could be early, I'll pass on betting on that on him.
Other plays:
• I will lay -192 and bet on Tim Means to defeat Court McGee, who is +160.
• I will lay the -105 and bet the Ryan Spann-Ovince Saint Preux fight goes over 1.5 rounds.
• I like Julianna Peña at +142 to defeat Raquel Pennington to win the women's bantamweight title. Pennington is a -170 favorite.