The question to Jon Jones, the UFC's heavyweight champion, was innocent enough: Will you defend your belt against interim champion Tom Aspinall if you defeat former champion Stipe Miocic on Saturday in the main event of UFC 309 in New York?
Jones, though, shocked nearly everyone who heard his answer when he said "most probably not." Jones went on to say that if he chose to fight against after Miocic, he'd consider UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira next.
His choice of words there is significant. Remember what he said.
When I asked the question, I did so because there has been plenty of speculation that the 37-year-old Jones may retire following the Miocic fight. To me, a bout with Aspinall would probably be the biggest heavyweight bout in UFC history given Aspinall's outstanding run in nine (really eight) UFC fights.
Aspinall would be 8-0 if not for a severe knee injury 15 seconds into a 2022 bout with Curtis Blaydes. Throwing that result aside since Aspinall never had a chance to start in the first Blaydes fight, he's 8-0 in the UFC, 2-0 with two first-round KOs in interim title fights and the winner of seven Performance of the Night bonuses.
Critics have buried Jones for seemingly declining an Aspinall fight. Social media has seen more duck emojis -- 🦆-- than it has since last hunting season.
It seems fairly clear at this point that Aspinall represents a far greater threat to Jones' championship reign than Miocic. Jones, however, questioned Aspinall’s credentials after saying he most probably wouldn’t fight him, which is flat-out wrong. Aspinall's credentials are superb.
Again, throwing out the 15-second loss to Blaydes, Aspinall is 5-0 against fighters in the UFC's current Top 10, with four first-round knockouts and a first-round submission win.
Miocic, inactive since his KO loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 260 in 2021, has no wins over currently active UFC fighters.
It's revisionist history to go back and say that the UFC should have made Jones-Aspinall originally, because when Jones-Miocic was first discussed, Aspinall wasn't even back from his knee injury. After Jones submitted Ciryl Gane in the first round to win the vacant heavyweight title at UFC 285 in Las Vegas on March 4, 2023, he grabbed the microphone from Joe Rogan at the post-fight interview and called out Miocic.
Even though at that point it was only weeks away from being two full years since Miocic fought, it was an entirely reasonable call-out by Jones. Aspinall would not return to action for four more months. The UFC put together Jones-Miocic for UFC 295 on Nov. 11, 2023, in New York, and all of this would have been avoided had Jones not gotten injured in training.
On Oct. 25, 2023, Jones was forced out of the bout with a pectoral injury which required surgery and the UFC put together Aspinall-Pavlovich for the interim belt.
If Miocic had agreed to fight Aspinall for the interim belt, the winner of that bout would then be facing Jones on Saturday. Instead, Miocic said he was only interested in Jones and declined a spot against Aspinall.
Aspinall destroyed Pavlovich and Blaydes, knocking them out in a combined two minutes and nine seconds. With Miocic sitting out while awaiting Jones, his inactivity has destroyed much of the luster in a once-attractive title fight as the days count down.
It will have been three years, seven months and 21 days since Miocic last fought when he steps into the ring on Saturday and it will be four years, three months and two days since he last won.
I get the circumstances that led to it, but it devalues the title when a fighter gets a title shot with stats like those.
Jones' comments about not wanting to face Aspinall simply exacerbated the frustration about Miocic's title shot.
It's absurd to think Jones is afraid of Aspinall, even though Aspinall may have the best style on paper to legitimately defeat him. Jones is an elite MMA wrestler and he takes all fights to the ground the minute he senses trouble. But against Aspinall, an elite jiu-jitsu black belt with quickness and athleticism, that wrestling security blanket may not be reliable as it once was.
It's notable, though, that Jones didn't say he would definitely not fight Aspinall. He said "most probably not." That’s reminiscent of the UFC 151 cancellation, when Jones declined a short-notice fight against Chael Sonnen. Jones was far from fearful. He man-handled Sonnen when they fought eight months later.
Jones' motivation in answer to the Aspinall question was probably two-fold. First, he's clearly thinking of retiring and he doesn't want to commit to anything beyond Saturday's bout.
But second, he's a smart guy and understands the kind of money a fight with Aspinall would generate. He's never been afraid to use the bully pulpit to argue for himself, and he was probably telling the brass if they want him to fight Aspinall after Miocic, it's going to cost them.
Is it a stretch to think that Miocic could upset everything here by defeating Jones? Well, Jones is a better than 6-1 favorite, and Miocic is 42 now. But his skillset suggests he'd have a chance if he's at his best.
All of the duck jokes will be meaningless if Miocic summons up one more great performance and defeats Jones on Saturday.
That seems unlikely, though it can't be dismissed wholly out of hand.
Only Jones knows for sure his true intentions, but if he defeats Miocic, it would hardly be a shock if Aspinall entered the cage and Jones challenged him for the undisputed total.
And then, that's when things will be really interesting. Jones has already built a reputation as one of the greatest to ever step into the Octagon. Beating Aspinall for the undisputed title at nearly 38 would ensure he'd have lapped the field by the time he retires.