On May 18 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a fatiguing Tyson Fury backed to the ropes midway through the ninth round in his bout with Oleksandr Usyk for the undisputed heavyweight title at Kingdom Arena. Fury was up on two of the three scorecards and even on the third through eight rounds.
Almost as soon as Fury's back hit the ropes, Usyk immediately banged him with a left hand that badly hurt Fury. It was Usyk's finest moment in the fight. It was almost the moment which cost Usyk the heavyweight championship.
Usyk went for the finish with gusto, and while he left Fury reeling around the ring, he did not finish him. Many believe that referee Mark Nelson gave Fury a huge break by not stopping it, but it was still a turning point in the fight in favor of Usyk.
However, Usyk did almost nothing after hurting Fury but throw head shots. Fury was badly hurt and had his long arms up protecting his head as best he could. Nelson at one point ruled that the ropes held Fury up and called it a knockdown, but Fury never actually hit the mat.
Fury's midsection was open for a body shot that never came. No one knows what Nelson would have done, but had Fury actually gone down, which the body shot might have accomplished, the odds of him stopping it at that stage would have gone dramatically up. As badly as Fury was reeling, had he gone down, Nelson would have had a lot more to consider.
Had Nelson stopped it, Fury wouldn't have had a chance to try to get back into the fight. So Usyk's choice to eschew body shots while going for the finish has to be viewed as a mistake, particularly from such a smart fighter. He gave Fury a chance he wouldn't have had had he dropped Fury and Nelson stopped it. Instead, he allowed Fury to survive and try to come back in the final three rounds.
As it was, Usyk won a split decision by scores of 115-112, 114-113 and 113-114.
They'll rematch on Saturday at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh with the WBA, WBC and WBO belts at stake. And while much of the talk is about the adjustments that Fury might be able to make, well, let's just say there are adjustments that the champion can make, as well.
Usyk is a -150 favorite to win outright, meaning you need to bet $150 to win $100. Fury is +120, meaning a $100 bet on Fury will return $120 if he wins. For more specific outcomes, such as Usyk winning by decision or technical decision, the odds improve to +170, offering a better return for the more precise bet.
The over-under is 10.5 rounds with over at -200 and under at +145.
In their first fight, I backed Usyk from the moment the fight was announced. I felt he was the better boxer and would be able to get to the right distance to neutralize Fury's enormous reach advantage. I also believed that Usyk almost always finishes stronger than his opponents and would do so against Fury.
Those points hold true in the rematch, but is there anyone who saw that first bout who doesn't believe Fury can fight better? Let's be honest: He could be considerably better on Saturday than he was in May.
Fury's jab is a power punch and when he's unloading it, it sets up a lot of his other punches. It also tends to slow down his opponent. He has to find a way Saturday to make the jab a bigger part of his arsenal. He also has to avoid getting pinned on the ropes, where Usyk takes his jab away from him and also works his fast hands to his advantage.
But Usyk knows that, as well. Few in the modern history of the game are better at making in-fight adjustments than Usyk. His mind works as quickly as the great Floyd Mayweather's did, and he is able to change course when the need arises on a dime.
That's why I believe that while Fury has a lot of space to improve, that Usyk will get it done again.
As a result, I'm making three suggestions:
• Usyk to win at -150
• Over 10.5 rounds at -200
• Usyk to win by decision or technical decision at +170
Usyk will likely start quicker in the rematch than he did in the first fight, and if he does, it'll leave him in a better position coming down the stretch.
It's a fight that Fury is eminently capable of winning, but I just think we're looking at a very special, elite fighter when we see Usyk. That kind of fighter tends to raise his game in the biggest moments and I believe Usyk does that on Saturday.
Usyk came up as a cruiserweight and thus doesn’t always get the respect as a great heavyweight that his resumé insists he deserves. A second consecutive win over Fury, though, should grant him all the respect and all the accolades he’d ever want.