Random thoughts on MMA in 2025, including the Fighter of the Year, Conor McGregor and whether Jon Jones faces Tom Aspinall

The one thing about MMA is that it never disappoints. Things never turn out the way we expect. When we look back on a year, it is often vastly different than the way the conventional wisdom imagined.

And so as I look ahead to the coming year, I wanted to put in print a few random thoughts on MMA in 2025 so that I'd give myself a good laugh once 2026 begins. These, though, are not all predictions. Some are predictions, some are courses of action I think should be taken and some are things I think are slam dunks.

With that being said, let's get to it.

Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall will unify

The one bad taste 2024 left in my mouth was having both Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall both end the year holding a heavyweight title belt. Jones is the heavyweight champion and Aspinall is the interim champ. Now, I am no fan of interim titles and I think the UFC should do away with them.

The UFC began using interim belts when it needed a main event and wanted a title fight to headline it. But the UFC has proven over the years that if it puts on the right fights, a pay-per-view show can be successful without a title bout. At the very least, if the UFC does make an interim title fight in the future, it should insist the champion's first defense is against the interim champ, without exception.

That said, Jones caused a stir before his UFC 309 bout with Stipe Miocic on Nov. 16 at Madison Square Garden in New York. In an interview with me on my YouTube channel before the fight, Jones said he didn't think he'd fight Aspinall.

That caused an uproar and led UFC CEO Dana White to say he 100 percent believes they'll fight in 2025.

I believe it because of White's guarantee, but more so because I know Jones. His legacy is very important to him and he cares how he's perceived by the fans. His resume is at light heavyweight is unmatched, but one could pick apart his resume at heavyweight.

He fought Ciryl Gane for the title that was stripped from Francis Ngannou, and Gane's lack of grappling made him a huge underdog. And then his defense against Miocic came against a guy who hadn't four in over three years and who was clearly at the end of the road.

Jones desperately wants to be in regarded in the same vein as athletes like Tom Brady and Michael Jordan, the unquestioned GOAT of his sport. Beating a big, strong heavyweight with the skills Aspinall possesses would end any doubt as to the identity of the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world now as well as of all-time.

The most vulnerable UFC champ in 2025 is ... 

The easy answer is Islam Makhachev, the lightweight champion and UFC's reigning pound-for-pound king. I don't say that because I think Makhachev is about to lose to Arman Tsarukyan in their title bout at UFC 311 on Jan. 18 in Los Angeles. Rather, it's because he's the next champion up and that makes him the most vulnerable.

But I think the first champion to lose in 2025 will be strawweight queen Zhang Weili. She defends against Tatiana Suarez on Feb. 9 in Sydney, Australia, in the co-main event of UFC 312. 

If Suarez, who has frequently been injured, is healthy, she will be able to use her wrestling to grind out a win.

Who will headline International Fight Week in July?

International Fight Week in Las Vegas is annually one of the UFC's biggest shows of the year and it looks to schedule a huge bout to headline it. If Conor McGregor returns -- more on that below -- than he'd make sense to headline it. He's no slam dunk to do it, though, given that in the nine years he was active in the UFC between 2013 and 2021, inclusive, he only headlined it twice.

This is a hunch but I say it will be a light heavyweight title bout between whoever holds the belt and ... Khamzat Chimaev. Chimaev could wind up fighting the winner of the UFC 312 middleweight title fight between champ Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland, but I'm going to say he'll fight for the light heavyweight belt instead.

Remember, Chimaev told me in an interview in October that he figured he'd fight in the U.S. if Donald Trump were elected president. Trump was elected and will be inaugurated for his second term on Jan. 20. Trump shared my Instagram reel of Chimaev making that comment on his Instagram story, so it seems the President-elect is on board, too.

Alex Pereira will defend the belt against someone in the first half of 2025, and I have a hunch that winner faces Chimaev for the belt in the main event of International Fight Week.

No.

I think we've seen the last of Conor McGregor inside a ring or a cage. McGregor put out on social media that he and Logan Paul will be boxing -- for $250 million each, no less!!!!!! -- sometime in 2025. Forget about that ever happening.

But as I said in June, I don't think McGregor fights again. He's not training and hasn't given any sign he's ever going to be able to do it seriously on a regular basis. 

He'll be 37 on July 14 and he hasn't fought since July 10, 2021, when he injured his leg against Dustin Poirier.

The odds are strong that the McGregor Era is over.

Speaking of UFC legends ....

I do expect that both Donald Cerrone and Tony Ferguson will get a fight in 2025, though I think the UFC should take a hard-line stance and not give either of them one. Both were once popular stars and high-end talents. Cerrone will be 42 on March 29 and he's 0-6 with a no-contest in his last seven. The no-contest was loss to Niko Price in 2020 when, shame, shame, shame, Price tested positive for the horrible sin of marijuana.

Going back to the start of 2017, Cerrone is 4-10 with a no-contest. He certainly hasn't shown he belongs in the UFC. Ferguson will be 41 on Feb. 12 and he hasn't won since defeating Cerrone of all people on June 8, 2019. He's 0-8 since.

At this stage, he has no business fighting any more. This is a dangerous sport and when fighters can't protect themselves, serious injuries can occur.

Health is far more important than nostalgia.

Francis Ngannou won't fight in MMA in 2025

If Francis Ngannou competes in 2025, it will be as a boxer and not as an MMA fighter. The contract he signed with the Professional Fighters League provides his opponent earn $2 million. The PFL doesn't have a solitary heavyweight who would come remotely close to giving Ngannou a competitive fight.

And a PPV with Ngannou against, oh, 2024 PFL heavyweight champion Denis Goltsov would do at least as poorly at the box office as Ngannou's bout with Renan Ferreira did. An Ngannou-Goltsov fight might -- might -- hit 10,000 on pay-per-view.

So look for Ngannou to box at least once in the coming year, but will he compete in MMA? As the late, great Gorilla Monsoon would say, "Highly unlikely."

Who will be 2025 Fighter of the Year?

Let me go out on a limb and predict that Umar Nurmagomedov wins this award. If he defeats Merab Dvalishvili on Jan. 18 at UFC 311, he'll likely face former champ Sean O'Malley there. Victories over a pair of big names like Dvalishvili and O'Malley would make him the clubhouse leader for the end-of-the-year award.

At DraftKings sportsbook, Nurmagomedov is -345 to defeat Dvalishvili.