Jake Paul the illusionist has run out of smoke: Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is no Mike Tyson

There’s a sucker born every minute. For years, Jake Paul cashed in by finding them. This time, though, the sucker is the face staring back in the mirror.

Paul hasn’t proven he can fight, but in February he came remarkably close to a massive bout against Canelo Alvarez. Turki Alalshikh swooped in at the 11th hour, literally, and signed Alvarez to a multi-fight deal.That Alvarez — even one of the greats in this sport’s storied history — would consider fighting Paul nearly defies belief. It does, at least, until you hear the story.

Alvarez’s daughter came home from school and asked him if he were afraid of Paul. Alvarez laughed and said that he was not. His daughter said her classmates were teasing her that he was, so Alvarez opened negotiations with Paul for a bout that would have paid him upwards of $100 million.

That figure alone — $100 million — is testament to Paul’s genius.

He hasn’t fought a legitimate world-class boxer in any of his 12 pro bouts, yet he talks about fighting soon for a world championship and people take him seriously.

Give the man credit: He’s taken the lowest possible risk fights for the absolute highest reward. He’s promoted himself brilliantly and become one of the biggest stars in boxing despite almost never fighting a boxer.

These are the ages and occupations of his 12 professional opponents. 

24 — Rapper

36 — Retired NBA player

36 — Retired MMA fighter

39 — Retired MMA fighter

39 — Retired MMA fighter

47 — Retired MMA fighter

27 — Active boxer/Reality TV star

38 — Retired MMA fighter

35 — Semi-retired boxer

35 — Semi-retired boxer

32 — Active Bare Knuckle boxer

58 — Retired boxer

One of boxing’s sanctioning bodies was ready to rank him. He was negotiating for a bout with Canelo. The average age of his opponents is 37.2. After he fights 39-year-old Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on Saturday, that will rise to 37.3.

That’s not the list of championship contenders. It’s a bunch of guys gathering information for an AARP card.

And yet, despite that résumé, Paul remains a massive draw. 

Last November, Paul fought the 58-year-old Mike Tyson in the main event of a globally streamed card on Netflix that drew over 100 million viewers.

Say what you will about his boxing skill, but he understands spectacle and how to command attention.

That makes his decision to fight Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., on Saturday of all dates, all the more baffling. 

Chavez Jr. fits the prototype of a Paul opponent. He’s 39, has had all sorts of issues with drugs and alcohol and hasn’t beaten a world class boxer since at least 2014, when he topped Brian Vera.

If you don’t consider Vera world class, then you have to go back to 2012 when he stopped Andy Lee.

His matchmaking formula hasn’t changed. He finds the old, the inactive, and the harmless, pays them well and markets both cleverly and relentlessly. What changed this time was the timing. And it’s a disaster.

Paul’s audience leans heavily MMA. Boxing fans know that as a fighter, he’s a fraud. Yeah, he’s getting better and to give him his due, he had no amateur career and started boxing in his 20s.

But MMA fans who may have heard of Chavez are his target audience. The issue for Paul is that on that same night, UFC 317, the centerpiece of International Fight Week, takes place with an epic bout between Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria for the vacant lightweight title.

Paul fought Tyson on Nov. 15, a Friday night and the night before Jon Jones knocked out Stipe Miocic in Madison Square Garden on pay-per-view in the main event of UFC 309.

This time, though, the events aren’t staggered. Paul versus Chavez will air live on DAZN pay-per-view directly against UFC 317.

The truth is that the pay-per-view business is on its last legs, and more people will stream the cards — illegally, of course — than will ever pay for either of them.

People who wouldn’t even consider swiping a Blu Ray from Best Buy to see a movie think nothing of stealing the pay-per-view signal.

Those who do buy will buy UFC 317 — by a margin of at least a 3-to-1, and maybe 4-to-1 or more.

Jake Paul is more David Copperfield than Canelo Alvarez. He’s an illusionist who sells the sizzle, not the steak. 

Paul has made millions selling illusion. He’s convinced the world he’s an elite boxer without ever really facing an elite opponent.

But illusions fade. On Saturday, he’ll be fighting a forgotten name in a forgettable match on a night where the attention will be on a real fight with significant stakes.

On Saturday, the sucker won’t be the guy plopping down $60 for this nonsense. 

It’ll be the guy in the ring.