Since returning on Oct. 31, 2020, from his motorcycle accident that kept him out of action for two years, Sean Strickland has fought 10 fights, going 8-2 and winning the middleweight championship in his last outing by routing Israel Adesanya in the main event of UFC 293 on Sept. 10 in Sydney, Australia.
On Saturday, Strickland makes the first defense of his title against Dricus du Plessis in a fascinating main event. At DraftKings sports book, the more reaction action has been on du Plessis, though Strickland remains the favorite at -118. Du Plessis is a -102 underdog.
The stats to watch on Strickland is the length of his fight. In those 10 fights since returning from what was a potentially career-ending injury, Strickland has gone the distance seven times. Du Plessis is basically the opposite. He's had six fights since joining the UFC for a bout against Markus Perez on Oct. 11, 2020, and he's ended it inside the distance in five of the six bouts. The only time he went the distance was, perhaps not coincidentally, against Strickland teammate Brad Tavares.
It's important to note in that context that Strickland and Tavares are each coached by Eric Nicksick, who has developed into the premier coach in the sport. He's developed Strickland into a formidable fighter whose strength is his striking and striking defense, but has wrestling and grappling skill when he chooses to use it. He was successful on four of six takedown attempts in a win over Uriah Hall on July 31, 2021, and had 7:02 of control time.
Strickland is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, though a recent tweet he posted on X (formerly Twitter) shows his disdain for jiu-jitsu. He threw his black belt in the trash. When a commenter asked if others realized Strickland was a black belt, Strickland said, "Oh yeah man ill smash in gi… just a waste of time for mma."
— Sean Strickland (@SStricklandMMA) December 23, 2023
So while Strickland by submission at +1200 is intriguing given his pedigree, he's pretty much telling you he's not going to use it. He hasn't had a submission attempt since a Nov. 11, 2017, win at welterweight over Court McGee.
Strickland is one of those fighters who wears you down over time. He's not throwing hard for the large part early, unless there's an obvious opening. But he's a lot like the Diaz brothers, Nick and Nate, in that he's constantly touching you and it becomes like Chinese water torture.
"Sean does hit hard, but he hits hard in spurts," Nicksick told keviniole.com. "It's almost like he has an off-speed pitch. He's throwing that off-speed pitch a lot and then all of a sudden, he comes with the fastball and it gets you. You feel like you have a rhythm of what he's going to do and then there's a speed change and he gets you. I think he's really good at dictating a different kind of pressure and presence, depending upon what we're trying to accomplish. But when there's blood in the water and he sees it, he's going hard for that finish."
Du Plessis is a skilled kick boxer with not only an awkward style and great physical strength, but he frequently switches stances. That causes opponents great difficulty.
But Strickland is smart and he'll be able to catch du Plessis at times when he's trying to switch.
I think it's going to be a high-pace fight and while it will undoubtedly hit the floor, I doubt highly we'll see a submission attempt, let alone a submission. Both, though, appear to be in superb shape and that's going to dictate a lot.
The plays: I have two plays on this. I think Strickland is underrated, his defense is strong, his cardio is outstanding and his constant pressure wears guys down. So I'll lay the -118 and take Strickland to win. The over-under is 2.5 rounds, with it -115 each way. I'll lay two units on the over at -115, so I'll risk $230 on that play for a potential $200 profit.
Movsar Evloev versus Arnold Allen looks like a long fight
Movsar Evloev is 17-0, including 7-0 in the UFC. He faces Arnold Allen in an important featherweight bout.
Evloev is a -192 favorite at DraftKings, while Allen is +160 in the opener of the pay-per-view portion of the card. Allen is 19-2, but had a 12-fight losing streak snapped in April when he was outstruck by, who else, Max Holloway.
Evloev has only seven finishes in his 17 fights and none in the UFC. Evloev averages 15 minutes a fight, while Allen averages 13:22. This is bound to be a long one, no matter what. Allen is a step above anyone Evloev has faced, but Evloev's wrestling is at least a step above, if not more, than anyone Allen's faced.
The plays: I like Evloev to grind out a win in a long and at times ugly fight. I'll lay the -192 and play Evloev to win. I'll also lay -300 on the fight to go the distance.
Viana is an upset special
Gillian Robertson has 10 submissions to lead all UFC women and, fittingly, she's only +120 to win by submisison over Polyana Viana. Viana is 13-6 and has lost two of her last three. She also only 3-5 in her last eight, and could be fighting for her job.
Viana is long and lanky and has a two-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage on Robertson. Robertson tends to struggle with those kinds of fighters.
The play: Robertson is -305 at DraftKings, with Viana at +245. I'm going to take the plus money and wager that Viana comes up big in a critical bout in her career.