You notice the perfect record Ilia Topuria sports. You are aware of his 85.7 percent finish rate. Perhaps you saw his bludgeoning of Josh Emmett, or even the beatdown of Bryce Mitchell.
Topuria, you think, isn't just beating these guys; he's sucking the life from them. In the immediate aftermath of his June 24 bout with Topruia, Emmett looked like he spent eight hours in an Academy Award-winning makeup artist's chair being prepared for a horror movie. He certainly didn't look like one of the elite mixed martial arts fighters in the world.
How -- How? -- you wonder, can anyone beat this man?
It's a good question. No one has really come close yet. He's got solid wrestling, good power and technical boxing skills. There are few obvious weaknesses in his game.
For months, he's been telling anyone who would listen that he'll be the next featherweight champion of the world, and on Saturday in the main event of UFC 298 at The Honda Center, he'll finally be forced to back up those brash words. He'll challenge Alexander Volkanovski for the title in a bout that many see as even as the flip of a coin.
At the Draft Kings, BetMGM and William Hill sports books, Volkanovski is a slim -125 favorite, with Topuria at +105.
It's important to note here that the line doesn't represent which fighter the oddsmakers believe will win; rather, it's how they believe the public will play. And so they've shaded the line a bit toward Topuria because of that 14-0 mark, those eight knockouts and four submissions.
Volkanovski by this point should be regarded as the greatest featherweight in MMA history. In a division in the UFC which has had only four champions in 14 years, Volkanovski stands above the rest. One of those four featherweight champions, Jose Aldo, is already in the UFC Hall of Fame. The others, including Volkanovski, Conor McGregor and Max Holloway, surely will be.
Volkanovski is 11-0 in the UFC as a featherweight, and this is the point where the numbers begin to shift in Volkanovski's direction. Those 11 wins and four knockouts he scored all came against UFC fighters, and six of them were in title bouts. Eight of Topuria's 14 wins were outside of the UFC and one of those inside of it was a lightweight victory over Jai Herbert.
There is also no comparison between the levels of opposition they've faced. He mixes the arts together like few in the UFC and so while Topuria may be more technical as a pure boxer, he's not necessarily more technical as an MMA fighter.
Volkanovski is coming off a first-round KO loss to champion Islam Makhachev in a lightweight title bout, and he's 35 years old, an age past which no UFC has ever won in a title fight from lightweight on down.
Normally, when you have a champion who has been as dominant as Volkanovski, you're forced to lay big bucks to back him. This time, though, it's only -125.
And in the end, Volkanovski's ability to put everything together; his experience against higher level opponents and his fight IQ make him the fight play, particularly at that price. If he was -225, I'd probably be making a case for Topuria now.
At -125, though, I'll lay the money and roll with the champion.
Will Costa physically overwhelm Whittaker?
The co-main event is a critical middleweight bout between a pair of title hopefuls, former champion Robert Whittaker and Brazilian Paulo Costa. At Draft Kings, Whittaker is -250 and Costa is +205.
Costa is a physical specimen, a brute of a man who, as Whittaker notes, loves to bully his opponents.
Costa thought he could overwhelm former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold in his last fight, and while he did get the win, he was physically exhausted at the end and couldn't move. Whittaker lost his last bout, and didn't look good in the process. He was routed by Dricus Du Plessis, who would go on in his next fight to top Sean Strickland and win the middleweight championship.
There's a temptation to take the plus money in this and go with the bigger, more physical guy, but Costa is too wild and inconsistent. Whittaker may not be what he once was, although what he once was was outstanding, and he's still very good now.
I was tempted to take the +135 and play Whittaker to win, but I didn't like limiting myself because a lot of times, if Costa makes mistakes, they're whoppers. So I'll lay the -250 and play Whittaker to win.
Other plays
• I'll take the +110 and play Miranda Maverick to defeat Andrea Lee by decision.
• I will put two units on Rinya Nakamura at +120 to knock out Carlos Vera
Last week (UFC Vegas 86): 1-3, $458 loss.
Year to date: 6-8, 42.9 percent, $302 loss.