The peak of Conor McGregor's career unquestionably occurred on Dec. 12, 2015, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, when he knocked out the legendary Jose Aldo in 13 seconds in the main event of UFC 194.
He became the full featherweight champion with that victory and one of the biggest stars in all of combat sports.
He's under .500 since that memorable night, going 3-4 against some of the best competition in the UFC. He split a pair of fights with Nate Diaz, lost a pair to Dustin Poirier, defeated Eddie Alvarez and Donald Cerrone and was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov. He was also stopped in a boxing match by Floyd Mayweather.
He severely injured his leg in his last fight, a rubber match with Poirier at UFC 264 on July 10, 2021, and hasn't fought since. He's starred in a movie, made millions by selling his whiskey brand and had a titanium rod surgically inserted into his leg, but he hasn't done what he loves most: Fight.
He'll return on June 29 in the main event of UFC 303 in a welterweight bout against Michael Chandler. DraftKings basically has the fight a pick 'em, with McGregor at -118 and Chandler at -102, despite what will by fight night have been a layoff of two years, 11 months and 20 days.
Ring rust is real, but it tends to have less of an impact on the true greats. Jon Jones, who is widely regarded as the greatest mixed martial arts fighter in history, had a layoff that was 35 days longer than McGregor's. Yet, he returned to defeat Cyril Gane and win the UFC heavyweight title in just 124 seconds at UFC 285.
Georges St-Pierre, another of the greatest who ever lived, had a layoff of exactly a year longer than McGregor will have, and he returned to defeat Michael Bisping, a future Hall of Famer, to win a middleweight title.
So the layoff, while concerning from McGregor's perspective, is not insurmountable.
What is concerning, though, and makes one wonder if McGregor can return to the same level he once had is the time since his peak. McGregor was 27 years, four months and 27 days old on the night he defeated Aldo in 13 seconds.
He'll be 35 years, 11 months and 16 days when he meets Chandler.
That's a long time since his peak, and that raises the question after everything he's gone through whether he can get anywhere near that level again.
When looking at other MMA greats like Anderson Silva, Fedor Emelianenko, Chuck Liddell and Daniel Cormier, it becomes clear that eight-plus years is a long time after one's peak.
Silva was probably at his peak in his win over Dan Henderson at UFC 82 in Cincinnati on March 1, 2008. Eight years later, Silva was beaten over five rounds by Bisping on Feb. 27, 2016, in the midst of a stretch in which he had been 0-3 with a no-contest. That streak would stretch to 1-7 with a no-contest over the remainder of his MMA career.
Emelianenko built his reputation in the first decade of this century as the dominant figure in the Pride Fighting Championship. Emelianenko's career peaked at Pride Final Conflict on Aug. 28, 2005, when he raised his overall MMA record to 23-1 with a no-contest, after beating Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic via unanimous decision in one of the decade's best fights.
Emelianenko would go on to win eight more bouts in a row. But by 2013, he was 3-3 in his last six and wasn't considered a Top 10 heavyweight.
Liddell was the UFC's biggest star in the early years of Dana White's ownership of the company. He probably peaked at UFC 52 when he knocked out Randy Couture in the first round on Feb. 4, 2006. A little over a year later, he lost his title when he was knocked out by Rampage Jackson. Eight years later, he hadn't fought for four years amid a 1-5 streak. He'd return in 2018 for one more bout, against Tito Ortiz, and he was knocked out and hasn't fought since.
Cormier is another great example. Cormier defeated Henderson at UFC 173 on May 24, 2014, to improve his record to 15-0. After a loss to Jones at UFC 182 seven months later, Cormier reeled off four more consecutive wins until another loss to Jones that was later changed to a no-contest. Eight years after the Henderson win, Cormier was retired for nearly two years.
It's just proof that the best of the best of the best even struggle to stay on top that long. There's only been a handful of fighters in the sport's history that have managed to stay on top for eight years or more after their peak.
Now, that's not to say that McGregor can't defeat Chandler. McGregor is a special talent with incredible quickness and power, and great accuracy with his strikes. In Chandler, he's gotten a favorable match-up from a stylistic standpoint. Chandler will likely be more than willing to stand and slug it out with him rather than taking him down and turning it into a grappling contest.
McGregor may well defeat Chandler. He may win another fight or two after this. But the one thing that history tells us is that his days of being one of the dominant fighters in the sport over long, long over.
It would be good for the sport, and the UFC, obviously, if he could recapture that level. Expecting that, though, is a bit naive. Enjoy him while he's here, because it's not going to be all that much longer before he says goodbye for good.