We've been down this path plenty before with Jake Paul. The social media influencer turned boxer will step into the ring on Saturday at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., to face yet another former UFC fighter when he takes on Mike Perry. Paul is a -425 favorite at DraftKings sports book in a bout that will stream on PPV.com and DAZN pay-per-view.
It's somewhat shocking that Paul is a -130 favorite to win by knockout. Perry was a middle of the pack UFC fighter who has found his calling in the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship. Perry was 14-8 in MMA, including 7-8 in the UFC. He's 5-0 with three KOs in BKFC, where he's the organization's middleweight champion and resident superstar. And he's 0-1 in boxing, having gotten knocked out in the fourth round of a March 28, 2015 bout.
Paul took the bout against Perry because his bout with 58-year-old ex-heavyweight champion Mike Tyson was delayed when Tyson came down with an ulcer. Paul wanted to stay active and Perry was both a big enough game and a safe enough risk to make him the choice.
Perry fits a pattern of Paul's opponents:
MMA fighters: Tyron Woodley twice, Anderson Silva, Ben Askren, Nate Diaz and Perry.
Not fighters at all: AnEsonGib (YouTuber) and Nate Robinson (NBA player).
Old, 38 or above: Tyson, 58; Silva, 46; Woodley, 39; Robinson, 38.
Considerably smaller: Robinson, Diaz and Perry.
Paul has called out a slew of fighters who are significantly smaller than him. He was taunting Nico Ali Walsh, a middleweight, for not wanting to fight him, but in Paul's last bout, he was 1993/4 . In Ali Walsh's last bout, he weighed 157. Paul, though, mocks Ali Walsh for being "afraid."
It's part of Paul's schtick, and while it's been said 1,000 times, it is accurate: Paul is a genius as a promoter and has a great sense of how to make money. The fight with Tyson on Netflix is going to do staggering business.
The troubling part, as always with Paul, are the questions about his talent level and where he's at. He's definitely no jabroni, as the late great Iron Sheik would have said. But he's also clearly not an elite prospect and it's laughable to suggest he'd ever come close defeating Canelo Alvarez, as he's vowed he'll do. Paul is 10 fights into this boxing experiment and we still don't know whether he can actually fight.
He's always in good condition; his footwork is clearly improving and he's beginning to punch in combination more. He seems to have a better sense of how to set his opponents up.
But he so often has a size advantage in his fights and it can cover up mistakes that bigger fighters with more boxing experience could capitalize upon. The same scenario is playing out again on Saturday.
Perry fought most of his career at 170 and he's now fighting at 185, but he's still not anywhere near the same size as Paul. BKFC is a unique sport and the skills required in it don't necessarily translate from the bare knuckle version to regular boxing.
So how much of a threat can he possibly be to Paul, who is essentially a full-time boxer?
I'm guessing not much.
Paul has shown a decent chin, but he really hasn't faced anyone who was a known puncher as a boxer. It's unlikely that Paul's team is looking to take on much risk heading into the Tyson fight. They're smart and know it would take much of the luster off of the Tyson fight if Perry defeats him or, worse, knocks him out. The Paul camp has to be confident that Perry's not going to be able to pose many issues.
Perry's only boxing match came on March 28, 2015, when he was a 2-0 MMA fighter and was stopped in the fourth round by Kenneth McNeil.
Perry, though, is as tough as they come and is an experienced fighter. He's not going to be intimidated and he's going to make it a fight.
The problem for him is he's giving up three inches in height and five inches in reach. Paul's good at popping his jab and keeping an opponent on the end of it, so Perry will have a find a way to get past it.
Paul is +260 to win by decision, which looks like a solid play. Perry knows how to survive and Paul couldn't get rid of Diaz and never really had him in trouble. It's unlikely he'll be able to finish Perry, either.
The simply play is lay the -425 and bet on Paul to win. That's a big price to put up, though, and Paul is no Terence Crawford. So instead of putting up $425 to to win $100, let's put the odds in our favor. Perry's been knocked out in his only boxing match against a far more experienced opponent. He was knocked out once in MMA, but it was from a head kick by Geoff Neal. So looking through that lens, Paul by decision at +260 is far more palatable.
A Paul knockout victory would be costly because you'd have had the right winner but wrong outcome. Perry's history and toughness, though, should make you as comfortable as one could be with two inexperienced boxers that he'll make it to the finish line.
I'm not confident Perry has the skill level in pure boxing to slip the jab and work Paul's body over. Were he able to do that, we'd be looking at an entirely different fight. This is just an opportunity to make some money while gaining experience, and so it's probably a safe bet to think Paul handles Perry fairly easily.
Take the plus money here and you're likely to be rewarded.
BKFC File photo
Mike Perry is a +300 underdog in his boxing match with Jake Paul Saturday.