Picking the proper time for a return for Conor McGregor is all about maximizing the impact for the UFC, ESPN

The UFC has main events scheduled for each of its pay-per-view shows for the remainder of 2024, save one. Of course, that's the one that MMA fans and media are already discussing ad nauseam.

It's still four months away and the topic is being debated hot-and-heavy on social media, on sports talk radio and across the interwebs.

As it stands, the UFC's PPV main event schedule is:

• UFC Noche, Sept. 14 at The Sphere in Las Vegas: Sean O'Malley versus Merab Dvalishvili, five rounds for the bantamweight title.

• UFC 307, Oct. 5 at The Delta Center in Salt Lake City: Alex Pereira versus Khalil Rountree Jr., five rounds for the middleweight title.

• UFC 308, Oct. 26 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates: Ilia Topuria versus Max Holloway, five rounds for the featherweight title.

• UFC 309, Nov. 16 at Madison Square Garden in New York: Not yet announced, but Jon Jones versus Stipe Miocic, five rounds for the heavyweight title.

We're still in the dog days of summer, but that leaves only UFC 310, set for Dec. 7 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, as the only pay-per-view for the rest of the year without a main event.

Potential UFC 310 main events

There are any number of bouts which would make sense to headline that show. Assuming he's healthy after defeating Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 in Perth last week, middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis could defend again against former champion Sean Strickland. And if the UFC added newly crowned welterweight king Belal Muhammad in the co-main against Shavkat Rakhmonov, it could be a huge show.

There's a brewing grudge match between du Plessis and Strickland. Du Plessis took the title from Strickland at UFC 297 in Toronto in an extremely close fight. The bad blood brewing between them, as well as Strickland's popularity, would make a show headlined by those two significant.

With the mystery surrounding Rakhmonov, who is undefeated with 18 finishes in 18 fights, a match against Muhammad for the belt would not only carry a lot of intrigue but solidify the winner as a stand-alone star on his own.

The McGregor Factor

Even with that double main event, though, UFC 310 wouldn't be as big as it possibly could be because, well, there's someone else available whose name transcends all others in mixed martial arts.

The one name that makes so much sense, the one everyone talks about and asks about and speculates about, is the one who is the most unlikely to get the gig, however:

Conor McGregor.

Oh, "The Notorious MMA" and Las Vegas are a match made in Heaven. Have little doubt that the casinos up and down the Las Vegas Strip would celebrate if UFC CEO/President Dana White were to announce that McGregor would headline a show on that date here.

The parties that would follow a McGregor bout in America's playground on Dec. 7 would make that date one which would live in Sin City infamy.

White, though, was emphatic following Week 1 of The Contender Series on Aug. 13 in Las Vegas that McGregor won't fight again this year.

McGregor was supposed to headline UFC 303 against Michael Chandler on June 29 in Las Vegas. Earlier in June, McGregor broke a pinky toe and pulled out of the fight. Pereira replaced him in the main event, taking a bout against Jiri Prochazka on two weeks' notice.

It doesn't take a broken pinky toe more than six months to heal. Unless something else has occurred -- and there is no indication that anything has -- McGregor should be able to fight now.

The fact that the UFC hasn't already booked McGregor for that card speaks volumes.

McGregor has two fights remaining on his contract, if he chooses to fight. The UFC, of course, would love to maximize those. 

That reason alone is likely why if we see McGregor fight again, it won't be until 2025.

Business decisions play a role

Marketing budgets are set far in advance, and for McGregor's first bout in more than three years, the UFC and ESPN would want to give it a proper build. 

Budgets reset in January, and if the UFC holds a McGregor fight until the first quarter of 2025, it will allow the UFC and ESPN to throw all of the financial muscle they want at it.

When they booked McGregor and Chandler in June, they could have set aside money for a December fight. But given the fact that McGregor hadn't competed since breaking his leg in a July 10, 2021, bout against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264, it was beyond optimistic to believe then that he'd be able to compete two times in six months.

Having said that, if you look at his history, January has been a month the UFC has used him frequently:

• Jan. 18, 2015: McGregor versus Dennis Siver, UFC Fight Night, Boston.

• Jan. 18, 2020: McGregor versus Donald Cerrone, UFC 246, Las Vegas.

• Jan. 24, 2021: McGregor versus Poirier II, UFC 257, Abu Dhabi.

Finding him a date is just one part of the problem. He has to be healthy and, most importantly perhaps, he has to want to train. McGregor loves to fight like no other, and if it were possible to fight without going through a six-, eight-, or 10-week training camp, I'm certain we'd have already seen him by now.

But when you're as rich as McGregor and have as many outside interests as he does, it's not always that simple to close yourself off from the world and get up early every morning and go through the grind that is a two-month graining camp.

If, though, McGregor chooses to fight, expect it to be in one of the first three months of 2025 and not in December. That way, UFC and ESPN kick off the final year of their deal in a huge manner and set themselves up for a massive campaign.

A McGregor fight would be big whenever it was held, even if it were on Christmas Day. He's become that massive of a superstar. But waiting until the new year would allow both UFC and ESPN to properly fund the event and give it the kind of build to maximize its potential revenue.

It makes a lot more business sense waiting until January, and if we have learned anything about the UFC over the years, it's that it's all about business.