Don't expect a grappling battle Saturday in the main event of UFC 307 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. If there is so much as one takedown attempt in the light heavyweight title match between champion Alex Pereira and challenger Khalil Rountree Jr., it will be stop-the-presses type of news.
Between them, Pereira and Rountree have combined for one takedown attempt in the UFC. Pereira hit that one, against Israel Adesanya, at UFC 284. So when they meet Saturday the most likely outcome is a toe-to-toe slugfest.
Pereira is on a Hall of Fame-type trajectory despite not having to use all aspects of his game. He's No. 2 pound-for-pound at KevinIole.com and he's won five in a row. His last seven bouts have all been against men who have held, or would go on to win, a UFC world title.
At DraftKings sportsbook, Pereira is a -520 favorite over Rountree, who is ranked eighth at light heavyweight in the UFC rankings behind Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, Jan Blachowicz, Aleksandar Rakic, Volkan Oezdemir and Nikita Krylov.
Former UFC title contender Chael Sonnen, now an MMA analyst for ESPN, likes Rountree to win outright, though. Rountree is +390 at DraftKings.
Sonnen, who nearly upset Anderson Silva in a middleweight title match in 2010 only to be submitted in the final moments, thinks the combination of Rountree's skills, the matchup and Pereira's potential decline conspire against the champion.
"Oh yeah, it's a very dangerous match-up [for Pereira]," Sonnen said. "All the greats, with the only historical exception of Mike Tyson, get away from the basics as they move up the ladder. Their way of showing the world how great they are is to put their hands lower and their chin higher. Alex is extremely guilty of that.
"We are not gonna get to see Alex fight very many more times, two or three at the most. Perhaps we're already there, but something tells me Rountree will compete. Alex is going to end up like Tyson or [Silva], for example, where the opponents make a decision in the back of how they’re going to get home in one piece."
Sonnen's podcast partner, UFC Hall of Famer Daniel Cormier, believes Rountree's best chance will come early. He is not discounting Rountree's chances of winning but believes a quick start that puts Pereira behind the eight-ball early is vital.
Rountree's staying power through five rounds isn't his strong suit, making it doubly important for him to get of the gate quickly, Cormier believes.
Cormier said a fast start would be Rountree’s best chance to disrupt Pereira’s rhythm and potentially steal the early rounds.
"I think it's a sprint for Khalil Rountree," Cormier told KevinIole.com in a phone conversation. "Alex can be hurt. Alex CAN be hurt. I think for Khalil Rountree, it's about starting fast, getting respect early and making something happen early. That's his big opportunity. He's so explosive. He's so big and powerful. He can knock you out. He has all these great things, a lot of them which you love to see in a fighter at this level.
"The issue for him Saturday is, his greatest skills and his best path to victory is what Pereira is better than anybody in the world at. From my perspective, his biggest opportunity will be to start fast, earn his respect from Pereira and hope to do something big."
The legendary boxing trainer Teddy Atlas, who will have a full breakdown on his outstanding podcast, "The Fight with Teddy Atlas," told KevinIole.com he doesn't discount Rountree's chances, either.
Both prefer to counter strike, if possible, and Atlas said it's vital for Rountree to set traps for Pereira and try to get him to lead. That will open opportunities for Rountree, a southpaw, to throw his crushing right hook.
Now, Atlas raved about Pereira's hook, as well, and called the champion's left "a Joe Louis left hook." Coming from a boxing lifer, that's about the ultimate compliment one can be paid. Louis used to throw what was called "a six-inch left hook" that delivered scores of knockdowns and finishes during his legendary reign in the 1940s as heavyweight champion.
Pereira is a terrific counter puncher, but Atlas said if Rountree is able to get him to draw out Pereira and get him to lead, it will lead to potentially fight-ending opportunities for his lethal counter right hook.
"Pereira's a scary dude, and he's earned that," Atlas said. "So if I'm Khalil, I'm looking to get him a little overanxious, overconfident, whatever you want to call it, overaggressive. Get him coming in and see if you can nail him with a counter instead of walking into his strengths. You don't want to walk into the firing line, which is [Pereira's] ability to counter with good, powerful shots.
"It's important to remember here that Rountree is a southpaw. He's got the most difficult punch I think for an orthodox fighter to face, which I believe is a counter right hook. Your peripheral [vision] has to pick that up and it's very hard for a right-hander to pick up that punch, to see that punch. Rountree has a beautiful counter right hook and I would look to set that up."
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UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira should be wary of opponent Khalil Rountree's counter right hook, ESPN analyst and legendary boxing trainer Teddy Atlas says.