Past performance, as they'll tell you in small print on advertisements for investment products, is no guarantee of future success. In fighting, though, it gives one a pretty good idea.
And in the main event of UFC 308, there is conflicting data that makes it difficult to choose between featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and former champ Max Holloway, who meet Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in the main event of UFC 308.
At DraftKings sportsbook, Topuria is a -250 favorite to defeat Holloway and retain the title. Holloway, who holds the BMF title, is +205. The over-under is 4.5 rounds. Under is -135 and over is +105. Topuria is +175 to win by KO and +500 to win by submission. Holloway is +500 to win by KO and +2500 to win by submission.
The bout is even money to end in a KO, +120 to end via decision, +425 to end via submission and +5000 to wind up a draw.
The best predictor of future success in fighting is, obviously, past success. Topuria is 15-0 with 13 finishes, including nine in the first round. Holloway is 26-7 with 14 finishes.
Clearly, that favors Topuria. There's always a but, though, and the but here is that Holloway has faced vastly better opposition than Topuria.
To me, an A-level fighter is one good enough to win a championship. An A+ fighter is one good enough to not only win a championship, but to defend it multiple times. It doesn't mean they necessarily had to do either of those things; just that they're deemed capable. I have had a few A++ fighters in UFC history, but those are fighters who are extremely dominant over long periods. The only ones I have ever given A++ ratings to were Jon Jones, Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva, Demetrious Johnson, Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes.
Topuria has faced one such fighter, former featherweight champion Alex Volkanovski. He knocked Volkanovski out in the second round at UFC 298 on Feb. 17 in Anaheim, Calif., to win the championship.
Holloway has faced 10 such opponents by my calculations and fought 14 times against them, going 8-6. I rated Dustin Poirier (0-2); Conor McGregor (0-1); Charles Oliveira (1-0); Anthony Pettis (1-0); Jose Aldo (2-0); Brian Ortega (1-0); Frankie Edgar (1-0); Volkanovski (0-3); Yair Rodriguez (1-0) and Justin Gaethje (1-0) as either A or A+ fighters.
He's also faced Chan Sung Jung (1-0), aka "The Korean Zombie"; Arnold Allen (1-0); Calvin Kattar (1-0); Ricardo Lamas (1-0) and Cub Swanson (1-0), whom I rate as B or B+ fighters.
Holloway has faced vastly better competition. Of that, there's no argument.
The question is, what does it mean in terms of how their fight will go on Saturday? In Topuria's defense, he can only defeat those he's faced, and there has never been a question in any of his bouts.
Plus, if you want to use the dreaded MMA math, he's knocked out a guy who has beaten Holloway three times.
Here's how it looks to me: Holloway has fantastic takedown defense and when he is taken down, he bounces up quickly. It's unlikely that Topuria will take Holloway down and keep him there. Holloway also has an excellent chin. He's never officially been knocked down, but he says he believes Gaethje knocked him down at UFC 300.
If Topuria defeats Holloway, it's obvious he's an A+ and potentially and A++ fighter. You beat Alex Volkanovski and Max Holloway in consecutive bouts and there is no doubt of that.
Holloway is taller by four inches, but both have 69-inch reaches. According to UFC Stats, Holloway lands significantly more significant strikes per minute than Topura, 7.17 to 4.4. Topuria absorbs fewer per minute, though, 3.35 to 4.72.
This is just an incredibly even match, and as is often the case, the result will likely hinge on which makes fewer mistakes.
Given that, I'll take Holloway at +205 to win. He's got terrific takedown defense and excellent submission defense. He's got a granite chin, though he can be hit, and he's got the power to make Topuria respect him.
There's a very good chance Topuria is a special athlete and this could be his coming out party. But given we don't have a lot of data of him at the highest-level and we'd have to lay at least -250, it makes sense to take the known quantity at plus money.
I think it's a no-brainer this one goes the distance, so I'll play two units on over at +105. And I'll lay one unit on the fight to end in a decision at +120.
Other plays
• The Khamzat Chimaev-Robert Whittaker fight is equally close with many of the same data points. I like the vibe I'm getting from Chimaev so I'll take him at -238 to win.
• I'll take Shara Magomedov at +330 to win by KO/TKO/DQ over Armen Petrosyan.
• I'll lay -245 on Rinat Fakhretdinov to defeat Carlos Leal Miranda.
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