It's easy to say that Shavkat Rakhmonov stands on the verge of greatness as he prepares to fight Ian Machado Garry Saturday in the co-main event of UFC 310 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The numbers scream greatness, for sure: Not only has Rakhmonov won 18 times in as many outings, he's also 18 for 18 in terms of finishes. He's won 10 fights by submission, including his last three, and he's won eight by KO. Half of his finishes have come in the first round.
In his last three bouts, he's submitted Neil Magny with a guillotine, and finished Geoff Neal and Stephen Thompson with rear naked chokes.
Thompson, though, was 40 at the time he fought Rakhmonov. While Neal and Magny are excellent fighters, they're not the elite of the elite.
That changes on Saturday when Rakhmonov faces Machado Garry. Machado Garry is 15-0 with eight finishes and in his last three fights, he's decisioned Magny, Neal and Michael "Venom" Page. He's young and improving and having just turned 27 last month is already ranked seventh at welterweight.
A win over Machado Garry, particularly a dominant win or a finish, would scream loudly that Rakhmonov is legitimately on the verge of greatness.
"He's undefeated for a reason and he's a good challenge for me," said Rakhomonov, who is a -380 favorite at DraftKings sports book.
Rakhmonov was supposed to be challenging champion Belal Muhammad for the belt at UFC 310 until Muhammad injured his foot and had to pull out. Fighting Garry, though, will put another high-level name on his resume before he fights for the belt. The key, though is maximizing his potential, winning a championship and establishing himself without question as one of the sport's elite.
He's not ranked in the UFC's Top 15 pound-for-pound, which says something about the perception people have of him at this stage. He's not ranked by either ESPN or MMA Junkie in their pound-for-pound rankings, and he's 18th of 20 according to MMA Fighting.
He needs a win over an established, quality opponent to make a statement and change minds. Garry represents that for him.
Garry was already going to be on the card and he jumped up to fill the spot opposite Rakhmonov when Muhammad fell out. He, too, has aspirations of not only winning the title but of cementing himself long-term as a legendary figure in the sport.
Since he joined the UFC, Garry has talked about a six-fight plan, in which he'd win the belt in the sixth one. His bout with Rakhmonov is his fifth in the UFC.
"God has gifted me a golden opportunity to go out and win on Saturday and cement myself as the No. 1 contender," Garry said. "I'm going to take it by the balls and out out and have fun."
In the long history of the UFC, there have been many outstanding fighters, but only a handful crossed into or anywhere near the mainstream. That list begins, and could end, with Conor McGregor. It's fair, though, to also include Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva, Ronda Rousey and Chuck Liddell to that list.
Beating Garry would be a feather in anyone's cap, but it might mean more to Rakhmonov now than anyone. Garry, who once sparred with Rakhmonov, says that Rakhmonov is legitimate and has no need to prove anything to anyone.
"The MMA fan base has questions about how legit Shavkat is," Garry said. "It's not that he isn't proved, or isn't do things that aren't phenomenal in his career. Eighteen up, 18 down is pretty spectacular. But [he's had] moments of very sloppy performance. Geoff Neal was arguably winning their fight. ... And it's just that his opponents haven't been as high a level in totality as mine have been, I believe."
Rakhmonov stands at an interesting juncture. If he defeats Garry, he'll likely fight Muhammad for the title next. Winning those two bouts and getting to 20-0 will be a massive accomplishment, and not only would make him a UFC champion but set him apart as a potential difference maker when it comes to ticket sales and pay-per-view sales.

Joe Camporeale/Imagn Images
Former boxing middleweight champion Gennadiy Golovkin (R), shown landing a right cross on Canelo Alvarez in their 2022 bout in Las Vegas, managed to become a star in the U.S. despite being from Kazakhstan, where Shavkat Rakhmonov is from.
UFC CEO Dana White has repeatedly said that while personality and the ability to do well on the microphone are useful, the reason someone becomes a star in the UFC is by fighting the best regularly, engaging in entertaining fights and getting a fair share of finishes.
So far, Rakhmonov has done that.
Legendary boxer Gennadiy Golovkin is, like Rakhnmonov, also from Kazakhstan, and he proved by scoring more than 20 consecutive knockouts in world title fights that someone from that country can be a star in the U.S.
Golovkin became a beloved figure among boxing hard-core fans, even if he never was the PPV draw that a Floyd Mayweather or a McGregor were.
Can Rakhmonov supercede Golovkin in that area? Well, beating Garry is a good first step. And finishing him would be meaningful. But to find out if Rakhmonov can take that final step toward greatness is going to take time and more wins.
If he wins on Saturday, though, the title fight against Muhammad will be infinitely bigger than it would have been had they competed at UFC 310.
Rakhmonov has a lot of reasons to be at his best when he makes the walk on Saturday.

Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images
Ian Machado Garry is 15-0 and figures to provide the toughest test of Shavkat Rakhmonov's career.

