Alexandre Pantoja is the UFC flyweight champion and has gone 3-0 in title fights in the last 17 months heading into his defense against Kai Asakura Saturday in the main event of UFC 310 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Pantoja has won six in a row, seven of his last eight and 10 of his last 12 against the best opposition in the UFC, yet he seems to often be overlooked. In the UFC's pound-for-pound rankings, he's rated 11, which is good. But there are eight champions in the promotion and the other seven champions -- lightweight Islam Makhachev, heavyweight Jon Jones, light heavyweight Alex Pereira, featherweight Ilia Topuria, welterweight Belal Muhammad, middleweight Dricus Du Plessis and bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili -- are ranked 1 through 7.
Interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall is eighth, with former welterweight champ Leon Edwards ninth and former featherweight champ Alex Volkanovski 10th, before Pantoja.
Pantoja is a -265 favorite over Asakura, the former Rizin bantamweight champion who makes his UFC debut on Saturday in the main event.
Asakura is a powerful striker who has KO power with both his hands and his knees. He's excellent in the clinch.
Pantoja is 28-5 in 33 pro MMA fights and is 12-3 in the UFC. He's never been finished in any of them, and I don't expect Asakura to break that trend.
And if Asakura can't knock him out, it really hurts his chances because Pantoja has a more varied game. He wasn't particularly impressive in his win over Steve Erceg at UFC 301 on May 4, but he was fantastic in his title-winning effort over Brandon Moreno and in his first defense, over Brandon Royval.
Pantoja has 18 finishes among his 28 pro wins, with eight by KO and 10 by submission. I suspect he could submit Asakura in this fight, but it's a bit of a risky play.
I think Pantoja will manage to slow the pace, get the fight to the ground where he'll be more comfortable and grind out a decision. So I'll lay the -265 and play Pantoja to win. The over-under is 2.5 rounds, and over is only -125, so as a second play on the main event, I'll bet the over.
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Nate Landwehr is a -130 favorite at DraftKings sportsbook to defeat Doo Ho Choi Saturday at UFC 310.
Nate Landwehr to win (-130) over Doo Ho Choi
Landwehr is inconsistent and prone to mistakes, and a big mistake against Choi could be fatal in this fight. But Landwehr has amassed a number of quality victories in his stint in the UFC, defeating the likes of Darren Elkins L'udovit Klein and David Onama, among others.
Choi is coming off of an impressive win over Bill Algeo, but he's on a 1-3-1 streak at this point.
Both fighters have holes defensively and each has the power to finish the other, making this one of those low-key can't miss fights. Landwehr, who has won three Performance of the Night bonuses and one Fight of the Night in eight UFC bouts, has fought more under control in recent fights.
That's important against a KO artist like Choi. If Landwehr stays patient -- never his strong suit -- Choi will give him opportunities. I'll play Landwehr to win, but I also think this could end in a Landwehr win by KO and lead to a more handsome payout if you go that route.
Alexander Volkov to win (+295) over Ciryl Gane
No active heavyweight has faced better opposition in the UFC than Gane, who defeated Volkov by unanimous decision on June 26, 2021. In his 11 UFC bouts, Gane has fought Jon Jones, Francis Ngannou, Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Serghei Spivac, Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
That's as good as it gets for an MMA heavyweight today. And the fact that Gane clearly won the first bout between them, he should be the pick here ... right?
I say no. I think the fighters have developed on divergent paths, and Volkov is looking dangerous at this point. I certainly don't trust Gane as a -375 favorite to pull it off. He had Ngannou beaten at UFC 270, only to inexplicably go for a heel hook. Ngannou defended, reversed position and won the fight by staying on top for the fifth round.
Volkov isn't the athlete that Gane is, but he's got a higher fight IQ and he's good at playing to his strengths. He enters on a four-bout winning streak, having beaten Rozenstruik, Alexander Romanov, Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich.
Gane is so talented that if he puts it all together, he could make this pick look silly. But I think Volkov will control the pace and the distance and capitalize on Gane's mistakes to win the fight and earn his revenge.
Aljamain Sterling to win by decision (+350) over Movsar Evloev
Sterling is a former bantamweight champion and just might be the most underestimated fighter in the sport. He's certainly not a particularly exciting fighter, but he comes in great shape, has fantastic wrestling and knows how to win. Yet, he's a +195 underdog to win against Evloev. Evloev is -238 to win.
The play on this fight might be to go over 2.5 rounds, but over is -445 and I just don't want to lay that much.
I like Sterling to win this fight, and given that it almost certainly will go to decision, I will play Sterling to win by decision at +350.
(All lines from DraftKings sportsbook)