Justin Gaethje brings the star power, violence and chaos to dance with Islam Makhachev at UFC 317

Dana White and Hunter Campbell have a problem.

A Dream Team kind of problem.

It’s like the one Chuck Daly faced in 1992, coaching U.S. Olympic basketball royalty: Who takes the last shot when you’ve got Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley, and David Robinson?

White and Campbell have at least as many options for Islam Makhachev, the UFC’s lightweight champion and No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

Scan the UFC rankings, and five names jump off the page — No. 3 Ilia Topuria, No. 7 Belal Muhammad, No. 12 Max Holloway, No. 14 Charles Oliveira, and No. 15 Arman Tsarukyan. Each offers a combination of entertainment value and commercial upside that makes them viable.

Neither No. 3 lightweight Justin Gaethje nor No. 7 Paddy Pimblett are ranked pound-for-pound, but either would generate massive interest — and money — if matched with Makhachev.

It gets complicated, but let’s go back to what Makhachev said when Tsarukyan withdrew just hours before the UFC 311 weigh-in.

When news broke that Renato Moicano would replace Tsarukyan at the last moment, Makhachev took to X and made his stance clear.

“What does this title represent?” he wrote on X. “It means you’re the best in the world and if you’re the best in the world, it doesn’t matter who’s going to be standing across from you. What do I say? No? NEVER. Let’s do this!”

That comment becomes important because of two of the potential opponents on the list.

Khabib Nurmagomedov, the UFC legend who is Makhachev’s close friend, mentor and coach, has been vocal in his opposition to bouts against Topuria and Muhammad.

Nurmagomedov, Makhachev, and Muhammad — the UFC’s welterweight champion — have trained together extensively. To Khabib, that’s an issue.

“Islam wants to fight at 170, but we can’t go up there because Belal is the champion and is very close to us,” Nurmagomedov said in an interview with Red Corner MMA. “We can’t exchange our relationships for belts. That’s not who we are. Those who offer us this just don’t look at the things we do, so we have different views in this case. I really want Belal to win with all my heart.”

In that same interview with Red Corner MMA, Nurmagomedov doused water on a Makhachev-Topuria bout because Makhachev has already faced several former featherweights.

“My personal opinion — not necessarily [more] dangerous, let’s say more competitive — I think it’s [Arman] Tsarukyan,” Nurmagomedov said. “I think Arman is a more serious fighter than Topuria. Topuria is a good fighter at 145 but we haven’t seen him at 155. I believe Arman is more competitive for Islam than Topuria. ...

“I don’t know what kind of agreements Topuria and the UFC had, but from Islam’s side, he already gave two title shots to 145 champions. Both times Islam won.”

Nurmagomedov has enormous influence in the Makhachev camp, but it’s important to note that he doesn’t have final say.

And remember that Makhachev said that he’s open to fighting anyone as champion. He repeated that a number of times at the post-fight news conference after choking out Moicano in January.

The next opponent hinges in a way on when Makhachev comes back. If he fights in June at International Fight Week, that probably eliminates Muhammad.

Muhammad is defending the welterweight title against Jack Della Maddalena on May 15 at UFC 315 in Montreal. That doesn’t give the UFC enough time to book Makhachev for UFC 317 on June 28 in Las Vegas given it wouldn’t know the UFC 315 winner soon enough.

But if Makhachev opts to wait to fight until September, then the UFC 315 winner is very much in play.

The UFC’s best problem right now is also one of its toughest: figuring out how to honor legacy, manage loyalty, and deliver the fight fans want most — all while its champion is ready for anyone, anytime, anywhere.

The Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority has invested millions with the UFC to make International Fight Week a mega-event, and it’s become one of marquee cards of the year.

It needs a superb headliner, such as the heavyweight title bout between champion Jon Jones and interim champion Tom Aspinall.

But if Jones isn’t prepared to fight in June, that fight likely moves to New York in November.

I’m hearing Dricus Du Plessis is injured, and though there has been no confirmation, if that’s accurate, a bout between Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev couldn’t headline IFW.

So Makhachev will be needed for Las Vegas in June.

That eliminates Muhammad. And given Makhachev’s interest in making the biggest pay-per-view he can make, it probably pushes Gaethje to the head of the line. 

Topuria isn’t established as a pay-per-view star yet despite his brilliance in the cage. Given that fact and Khabib’s point about him not having fought at lightweight yet, it probably pushes him out of consideration.

Holloway is coming off a loss to Topuria in a title fight so he’s not likely for that reason, though he has the star power the UFC would want for the show. 

Pimblett made a huge leap but he is still building and is only ranked seventh. 

That leaves Gaethje, Oliveira and Tsarukyan. 

The way Tsarukyan pulled out late against Makhachev has clearly soured UFC brass on him. He’ll need another win before a title shot.

That leaves just Gaethje and Oliveira.

Either is a win.

The challenge isn’t picking the right fight. It’s picking the right one right now. And for UFC 317, that likely means Makhachev against Gaethje.

The UFC doesn’t have time to overthink this one. It needs star power, violence, and a little chaos. Gaethje getting one last shot at the belt delivers all three.