Derrick Lewis is rapidly closing in on his 40th birthday, and while the UFC's all-time KO king proved he still has the thump to end fights early when he finished Rodrigo Nascimento in May, he isn't on a good run going into his fight on the main card of UFC Edmonton against Jhonata Diniz.
Lewis is 2-4 in his last six and was finished in three of those four losses. In the other one, BJJ black belt Jailton Almeida quickly recognized his best chance to win was on the ground, so he repeatedly took Lewis down and held him there for the better part of 25 minutes.
What that says is, Lewis' fights generally don't require the work of the judges. At the DraftKings sportsbook, the over-under on his fight is 1.5 full rounds, with over even money and under at -130.
Diniz is a -166 favorite with Lewis at +140.
Diniz is 8-0, including 2-0 this year in the UFC after earning his contract at Dana White's Contender Series on Sept. 12, 2023, when he knocked out Eduardo Neves.
Neither of the two opponents he faced in the UFC, Austen Lane and Karl Williams, are of Lewis' caliber, though.
The over-under is a really tight line here, because both guys are vulnerable. Lewis has been KO'd seven times in his career, but he has the power to put anyone in the world out.
I think Diniz will be willing to stand with Lewis at times given that he's a credentialed kickboxer. But I expect him to mix up his attack and threaten the takedown at least a bit to try to keep Lewis off-balance.
Given that, I believe the fight will extend a bit. I still expect a finish, but I'll take the even money and bet it goes past 1.5 rounds.
Diniz is the rightful favorite here, but it's a fair question to wonder about his tank if the fight extends. He finished his first six fights in the first round before stopping Lane in the second and then going to a decision with Williams.
Lewis is the UFC's all-time KO leader and he's available to win by KO at +215. There's a lot of value in that and Lewis tends to carry his power with him. He's had 8 of his 15 UFC KOs come after 1.5 full rounds.
Thus, I'll put one unit on Lewis to win by KO at +215.
Look for Moreno to get back on track in main event
Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno returns from a brief mental health break in the main event against Amir Albazi while looking to end a two-fight losing skid. At DraftKings, Moreno is -175, with Albazi at +145.
Moreno has faced the better opposition, and given that he's fully healthy and with a clear head, I expect an elite performance out of him. Albazi is coming off a 2023 split decision win over Kai Kara-France that many believe Kara-France deserved to win.
Moreno has dreams of regaining the title, but he's on a two-fight losing streak and has dropped three of his last five. He knows the importance of Saturday's bout and wouldn't have ended his sabbatical if he wasn't confident in his ability to get back into the win column.
He has more tools and more ways to win and so I'll lay the -175 and pick Moreno to win.
Other plays
• Victor Henry to win at +120 over Charles Jourdain.
• I'll lay the -135 and play Youssef Zalal to win by decision over Jack Shore.
• Marc-Andre Barriault to win at -198 over Dustin Stoltzfus.